When the Associated Press releases its 2009 preseason college football poll this weekend, it's all but guaranteed that Florida will be ranked No. 1—and that the Gators will collect a fat majority of the first-place votes. Florida already received 90% of first-place votes in the recent coaches' poll.

Florida quarterback Tim Tebow Associated Press

It's no mystery why. The Gators are the defending BCS national champions and their quarterback, Tim Tebow, and their entire starting defense is coming back. Rarely has a defending champion enjoyed such riches.

But there's some evidence that Florida's fans should think twice before ordering their commemorative "Repeat Champions!" T-shirts.

Bad Omen for the Gators

Here are the 10 teams that received the highest percentages of first-place votes in the preseason AP football poll since 1968—and how they finished the season.





1. USC, 2007 (95.4%)

11-2 (3rd) 6. Florida State, 1991 (81.7%) 11-2 (4th)
2. USC, 2005 (92.3%) 12-1 (2nd) 7. Ohio State, 1969 (78.8%) 8-1 (4th)

3. Oklahoma, 1987 (91.7%)

11-1 (3rd) 8. Nebraska , 1996 (74.6%) 11-2 (6th)

4. Oklahoma, 1975 (90%)

11-1 (1st) 9. USC, 1979 (74.6%) 11-0-1 (2nd)

5. USC, 1973 (87.3%)

9-2-1 (8th) 10. Oklahoma, 1986 (74.6%) 11-1 (3rd)

Since 1968, 10 teams have received at least 75% of the first-place votes in the preseason AP poll. Like Florida, seven of them were defending national champions.

But only one of those teams, Oklahoma in 1975, actually won the national championship. None of these teams went undefeated—in fact, their average finish in the final polls was a mediocre 3.6.

Two years ago, USC received 95.4% of the preseason No. 1 votes but saw its championship hopes derailed by a shocking regular-season loss to 41-point underdog Stanford.

The Gators do have one thing going for them. In today's college football landscape, where the national champion has lost at least one game in each of the past three seasons and where the BCS computers emphasize strength of schedule, it is highly likely that a one-loss Florida team would still find its way to the BCS title game.

Whether they'll manage to win is an open question.

— Bill Connelly