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SubscribeO-MMGP: Optimal Mesh Morphing Gaussian Process Regression for Solving PDEs with non-Parametric Geometric Variations
We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.
Infinite products and zero-one laws in categorical probability
Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.
On the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using AI
The present work explores the theoretical limits of Machine Learning (ML) within the framework of Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability, which clarifies the notion of entropy as Expected Kolmogorov Complexity and formalizes other fundamental concepts such as Occam's razor via Levin's Universal Distribution. As a fundamental application, we develop Maximum Entropy methods that allow us to derive the Erdos--Kac Law in Probabilistic Number Theory, and establish the impossibility of discovering a formula for primes using Machine Learning via the Prime Coding Theorem.
A kernel Stein test of goodness of fit for sequential models
We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.
Physics-informed cluster analysis and a priori efficiency criterion for the construction of local reduced-order bases
Nonlinear model order reduction has opened the door to parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification in complex physics problems governed by nonlinear equations. In particular, the computational cost of solving these equations can be reduced by means of local reduced-order bases. This article examines the benefits of a physics-informed cluster analysis for the construction of cluster-specific reduced-order bases. We illustrate that the choice of the dissimilarity measure for clustering is fundamental and highly affects the performances of the local reduced-order bases. It is shown that clustering with an angle-based dissimilarity on simulation data efficiently decreases the intra-cluster Kolmogorov N-width. Additionally, an a priori efficiency criterion is introduced to assess the relevance of a ROM-net, a methodology for the reduction of nonlinear physics problems introduced in our previous work in [T. Daniel, F. Casenave, N. Akkari, D. Ryckelynck, Model order reduction assisted by deep neural networks (ROM-net), Advanced Modeling and Simulation in Engineering Sciences 7 (16), 2020]. This criterion also provides engineers with a very practical method for ROM-nets' hyperparameters calibration under constrained computational costs for the training phase. On five different physics problems, our physics-informed clustering strategy significantly outperforms classic strategies for the construction of local reduced-order bases in terms of projection errors.
Physics-aware registration based auto-encoder for convection dominated PDEs
We design a physics-aware auto-encoder to specifically reduce the dimensionality of solutions arising from convection-dominated nonlinear physical systems. Although existing nonlinear manifold learning methods seem to be compelling tools to reduce the dimensionality of data characterized by a large Kolmogorov n-width, they typically lack a straightforward mapping from the latent space to the high-dimensional physical space. Moreover, the realized latent variables are often hard to interpret. Therefore, many of these methods are often dismissed in the reduced order modeling of dynamical systems governed by the partial differential equations (PDEs). Accordingly, we propose an auto-encoder type nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm. The unsupervised learning problem trains a diffeomorphic spatio-temporal grid, that registers the output sequence of the PDEs on a non-uniform parameter/time-varying grid, such that the Kolmogorov n-width of the mapped data on the learned grid is minimized. We demonstrate the efficacy and interpretability of our approach to separate convection/advection from diffusion/scaling on various manufactured and physical systems.
Geometry of Sample Spaces
In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.
Lagrangian PINNs: A causality-conforming solution to failure modes of physics-informed neural networks
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage neural-networks to find the solutions of partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems with initial conditions and boundary conditions as soft constraints. These soft constraints are often considered to be the sources of the complexity in the training phase of PINNs. Here, we demonstrate that the challenge of training (i) persists even when the boundary conditions are strictly enforced, and (ii) is closely related to the Kolmogorov n-width associated with problems demonstrating transport, convection, traveling waves, or moving fronts. Given this realization, we describe the mechanism underlying the training schemes such as those used in eXtended PINNs (XPINN), curriculum regularization, and sequence-to-sequence learning. For an important category of PDEs, i.e., governed by non-linear convection-diffusion equation, we propose reformulating PINNs on a Lagrangian frame of reference, i.e., LPINNs, as a PDE-informed solution. A parallel architecture with two branches is proposed. One branch solves for the state variables on the characteristics, and the second branch solves for the low-dimensional characteristics curves. The proposed architecture conforms to the causality innate to the convection, and leverages the direction of travel of the information in the domain. Finally, we demonstrate that the loss landscapes of LPINNs are less sensitive to the so-called "complexity" of the problems, compared to those in the traditional PINNs in the Eulerian framework.
Feature Learning in Infinite-Width Neural Networks
As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.
Faster Algorithms for Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances
We study the classic Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem: given a pattern P of length m and a text T of length n, both over a polynomial-size alphabet, compute the Hamming distance between P and T[i, ., . , i+m-1] for every shift i, under the standard Word-RAM model with Theta(log n)-bit words. - We provide an O(nm) time Las Vegas randomized algorithm for this problem, beating the decades-old O(n m log m) running time [Abrahamson, SICOMP 1987]. We also obtain a deterministic algorithm, with a slightly higher O(nm(log mloglog m)^{1/4}) running time. Our randomized algorithm extends to the k-bounded setting, with running time Obig(n+nk{m}big), removing all the extra logarithmic factors from earlier algorithms [Gawrychowski and Uzna\'{n}ski, ICALP 2018; Chan, Golan, Kociumaka, Kopelowitz and Porat, STOC 2020]. - For the (1+epsilon)-approximate version of Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances, we give an O(epsilon^{-0.93}n) time Monte Carlo randomized algorithm, beating the previous O(epsilon^{-1}n) running time [Kopelowitz and Porat, FOCS 2015; Kopelowitz and Porat, SOSA 2018]. Our approximation algorithm exploits a connection with 3SUM, and uses a combination of Fredman's trick, equality matrix product, and random sampling; in particular, we obtain new results on approximate counting versions of 3SUM and Exact Triangle, which may be of independent interest. Our exact algorithms use a novel combination of hashing, bit-packed FFT, and recursion; in particular, we obtain a faster algorithm for computing the sumset of two integer sets, in the regime when the universe size is close to quadratic in the number of elements. We also prove a fine-grained equivalence between the exact Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem and a range-restricted, counting version of 3SUM.
Fluctuations of the connectivity threshold and largest nearest-neighbour link
Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.
The KoLMogorov Test: Compression by Code Generation
Compression is at the heart of intelligence. A theoretically optimal way to compress any sequence of data is to find the shortest program that outputs that sequence and then halts. However, such 'Kolmogorov compression' is uncomputable, and code generating LLMs struggle to approximate this theoretical ideal, as it requires reasoning, planning and search capabilities beyond those of current models. In this work, we introduce the KoLMogorov-Test (KT), a compression-as-intelligence test for code generating LLMs. In KT a model is presented with a sequence of data at inference time, and asked to generate the shortest program that produces the sequence. We identify several benefits of KT for both evaluation and training: an essentially infinite number of problem instances of varying difficulty is readily available, strong baselines already exist, the evaluation metric (compression) cannot be gamed, and pretraining data contamination is highly unlikely. To evaluate current models, we use audio, text, and DNA data, as well as sequences produced by random synthetic programs. Current flagship models perform poorly - both GPT4-o and Llama-3.1-405B struggle on our natural and synthetic sequences. On our synthetic distribution, we are able to train code generation models with lower compression rates than previous approaches. Moreover, we show that gains on synthetic data generalize poorly to real data, suggesting that new innovations are necessary for additional gains on KT.
Minimal Width for Universal Property of Deep RNN
A recurrent neural network (RNN) is a widely used deep-learning network for dealing with sequential data. Imitating a dynamical system, an infinite-width RNN can approximate any open dynamical system in a compact domain. In general, deep networks with bounded widths are more effective than wide networks in practice; however, the universal approximation theorem for deep narrow structures has yet to be extensively studied. In this study, we prove the universality of deep narrow RNNs and show that the upper bound of the minimum width for universality can be independent of the length of the data. Specifically, we show that a deep RNN with ReLU activation can approximate any continuous function or L^p function with the widths d_x+d_y+2 and max{d_x+1,d_y}, respectively, where the target function maps a finite sequence of vectors in R^{d_x} to a finite sequence of vectors in R^{d_y}. We also compute the additional width required if the activation function is tanh or more. In addition, we prove the universality of other recurrent networks, such as bidirectional RNNs. Bridging a multi-layer perceptron and an RNN, our theory and proof technique can be an initial step toward further research on deep RNNs.
Minimum width for universal approximation using ReLU networks on compact domain
It has been shown that deep neural networks of a large enough width are universal approximators but they are not if the width is too small. There were several attempts to characterize the minimum width w_{min} enabling the universal approximation property; however, only a few of them found the exact values. In this work, we show that the minimum width for L^p approximation of L^p functions from [0,1]^{d_x} to mathbb R^{d_y} is exactly max{d_x,d_y,2} if an activation function is ReLU-Like (e.g., ReLU, GELU, Softplus). Compared to the known result for ReLU networks, w_{min}=max{d_x+1,d_y} when the domain is mathbb R^{d_x}, our result first shows that approximation on a compact domain requires smaller width than on mathbb R^{d_x}. We next prove a lower bound on w_{min} for uniform approximation using general activation functions including ReLU: w_{min}ge d_y+1 if d_x<d_yle2d_x. Together with our first result, this shows a dichotomy between L^p and uniform approximations for general activation functions and input/output dimensions.
Kolmogorov--Arnold networks in molecular dynamics
We explore the integration of Kolmogorov Networks (KANs) into molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to improve interatomic potentials. We propose that widely used potentials, such as the Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential, the embedded atom model (EAM), and artificial neural network (ANN) potentials, can be interpreted within the KAN framework. Specifically, we demonstrate that the descriptors for ANN potentials, typically constructed using polynomials, can be redefined using KAN's non-linear functions. By employing linear or cubic spline interpolations for these KAN functions, we show that the computational cost of evaluating ANN potentials and their derivatives is reduced.
A New Bound on the Cumulant Generating Function of Dirichlet Processes
In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for bounding the cumulant generating function (CGF) of a Dirichlet process (DP) X sim DP(αν_0), using superadditivity. In particular, our key technical contribution is the demonstration of the superadditivity of αmapsto log E_{X sim DP(αν_0)}[exp( E_X[αf])], where E_X[f] = int f dX. This result, combined with Fekete's lemma and Varadhan's integral lemma, converts the known asymptotic large deviation principle into a practical upper bound on the CGF logE_{Xsim DP(αν_0)}{exp(E_{X}{[f]})} for any α> 0. The bound is given by the convex conjugate of the scaled reversed Kullback-Leibler divergence αKL(ν_0Vert cdot). This new bound provides particularly effective confidence regions for sums of independent DPs, making it applicable across various fields.
Width and Depth Limits Commute in Residual Networks
We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.
Denotational validation of higher-order Bayesian inference
We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.
A Probability Monad as the Colimit of Spaces of Finite Samples
We define and study a probability monad on the category of complete metric spaces and short maps. It assigns to each space the space of Radon probability measures on it with finite first moment, equipped with the Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance. This monad is analogous to the Giry monad on the category of Polish spaces, and it extends a construction due to van Breugel for compact and for 1-bounded complete metric spaces. We prove that this Kantorovich monad arises from a colimit construction on finite power-like constructions, which formalizes the intuition that probability measures are limits of finite samples. The proof relies on a criterion for when an ordinary left Kan extension of lax monoidal functors is a monoidal Kan extension. The colimit characterization allows the development of integration theory and the treatment of measures on spaces of measures, without measure theory. We also show that the category of algebras of the Kantorovich monad is equivalent to the category of closed convex subsets of Banach spaces with short affine maps as morphisms.
Commutative Width and Depth Scaling in Deep Neural Networks
This paper is the second in the series Commutative Scaling of Width and Depth (WD) about commutativity of infinite width and depth limits in deep neural networks. Our aim is to understand the behaviour of neural functions (functions that depend on a neural network model) as width and depth go to infinity (in some sense), and eventually identify settings under which commutativity holds, i.e. the neural function tends to the same limit no matter how width and depth limits are taken. In this paper, we formally introduce and define the commutativity framework, and discuss its implications on neural network design and scaling. We study commutativity for the neural covariance kernel which reflects how network layers separate data. Our findings extend previous results established in [55] by showing that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are suitably scaled to avoid exploding behaviour, result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This has a number of theoretical and practical implications that we discuss in the paper. The proof techniques in this paper are novel and rely on tools that are more accessible to readers who are not familiar with stochastic calculus (used in the proofs of WD(I))).
A Convenient Category for Higher-Order Probability Theory
Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.
Explaining Neural Scaling Laws
The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.
Individualizing Glioma Radiotherapy Planning by Optimization of Data and Physics-Informed Discrete Loss
Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.
Towards Optimal Regret in Adversarial Linear MDPs with Bandit Feedback
We study online reinforcement learning in linear Markov decision processes with adversarial losses and bandit feedback, without prior knowledge on transitions or access to simulators. We introduce two algorithms that achieve improved regret performance compared to existing approaches. The first algorithm, although computationally inefficient, ensures a regret of mathcal{O}left(Kright), where K is the number of episodes. This is the first result with the optimal K dependence in the considered setting. The second algorithm, which is based on the policy optimization framework, guarantees a regret of mathcal{O}left(K^{3{4}} right) and is computationally efficient. Both our results significantly improve over the state-of-the-art: a computationally inefficient algorithm by Kong et al. [2023] with mathcal{O}left(K^{4{5}}+polyleft(1{lambda_{min}}right) right) regret, for some problem-dependent constant lambda_{min} that can be arbitrarily close to zero, and a computationally efficient algorithm by Sherman et al. [2023b] with mathcal{O}left(K^{6{7}} right) regret.
A Test for Jumps in Metric-Space Conditional Means
Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.
Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals
In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.
Spectral Scaling Laws in Language Models: How Effectively Do Feed-Forward Networks Use Their Latent Space?
As large language models (LLMs) scale, the question is not only how large they become, but how much of their capacity is effectively utilized. Existing scaling laws relate model size to loss, yet overlook how components exploit their latent space. We study feed-forward networks (FFNs) and recast width selection as a spectral utilization problem. Using a lightweight diagnostic suite -- Hard Rank (participation ratio), Soft Rank (Shannon rank), Spectral Concentration, and the composite Spectral Utilization Index (SUI) -- we quantify how many latent directions are meaningfully activated across LLaMA, GPT-2, and nGPT families. Our key finding is an asymmetric spectral scaling law: soft rank follows an almost perfect power law with FFN width, while hard rank grows only sublinearly and with high variance. This asymmetry suggests that widening FFNs mostly adds low-energy tail directions, while dominant-mode subspaces saturate early. Moreover, at larger widths, variance further collapses into a narrow subspace, leaving much of the latent space under-utilized. These results recast FFN width selection as a principled trade-off between tail capacity and dominant-mode capacity, offering concrete guidance for inference-efficient LLM design.
KAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks
Inspired by the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, we propose Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) as promising alternatives to Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs). While MLPs have fixed activation functions on nodes ("neurons"), KANs have learnable activation functions on edges ("weights"). KANs have no linear weights at all -- every weight parameter is replaced by a univariate function parametrized as a spline. We show that this seemingly simple change makes KANs outperform MLPs in terms of accuracy and interpretability. For accuracy, much smaller KANs can achieve comparable or better accuracy than much larger MLPs in data fitting and PDE solving. Theoretically and empirically, KANs possess faster neural scaling laws than MLPs. For interpretability, KANs can be intuitively visualized and can easily interact with human users. Through two examples in mathematics and physics, KANs are shown to be useful collaborators helping scientists (re)discover mathematical and physical laws. In summary, KANs are promising alternatives for MLPs, opening opportunities for further improving today's deep learning models which rely heavily on MLPs.
Kernel Density Estimators in Large Dimensions
This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.
Sharp Deviations Bounds for Dirichlet Weighted Sums with Application to analysis of Bayesian algorithms
In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.
On Learning Markov Chains
The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.
Nonlinear Sufficient Dimension Reduction for Distribution-on-Distribution Regression
We introduce a new approach to nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction in cases where both the predictor and the response are distributional data, modeled as members of a metric space. Our key step is to build universal kernels (cc-universal) on the metric spaces, which results in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for the predictor and response that are rich enough to characterize the conditional independence that determines sufficient dimension reduction. For univariate distributions, we construct the universal kernel using the Wasserstein distance, while for multivariate distributions, we resort to the sliced Wasserstein distance. The sliced Wasserstein distance ensures that the metric space possesses similar topological properties to the Wasserstein space while also offering significant computation benefits. Numerical results based on synthetic data show that our method outperforms possible competing methods. The method is also applied to several data sets, including fertility and mortality data and Calgary temperature data.
On the infinite-depth limit of finite-width neural networks
In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.
Kolmogorov Arnold Informed neural network: A physics-informed deep learning framework for solving PDEs based on Kolmogorov Arnold Networks
AI for partial differential equations (PDEs) has garnered significant attention, particularly with the emergence of Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). The recent advent of Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) indicates that there is potential to revisit and enhance the previously MLP-based PINNs. Compared to MLPs, KANs offer interpretability and require fewer parameters. PDEs can be described in various forms, such as strong form, energy form, and inverse form. While mathematically equivalent, these forms are not computationally equivalent, making the exploration of different PDE formulations significant in computational physics. Thus, we propose different PDE forms based on KAN instead of MLP, termed Kolmogorov-Arnold-Informed Neural Network (KINN). We systematically compare MLP and KAN in various numerical examples of PDEs, including multi-scale, singularity, stress concentration, nonlinear hyperelasticity, heterogeneous, and complex geometry problems. Our results demonstrate that KINN significantly outperforms MLP in terms of accuracy and convergence speed for numerous PDEs in computational solid mechanics, except for the complex geometry problem. This highlights KINN's potential for more efficient and accurate PDE solutions in AI for PDEs.
First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XVI: Size Evolution of Massive Dusty Galaxies at Cosmic Dawn from UV to IR
We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to study the evolution of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) and far-infrared (FIR) sizes for a statistical sample of massive (gtrsim10^{9}M_{odot}) high redshift galaxies (z in [5,10]). Galaxies are post-processed using the SKIRT radiative transfer code, to self-consistently obtain the full spectral energy distribution and surface brightness distribution. We create mock observations of the galaxies for the Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam) to study the rest-frame UV 1500 xC5 morphology. We also generate mock rest-frame FIR (50 mum) photometry and mock ALMA (158 mum) (0.01"-0.03" and approx0.3" angular resolution) observations to study the dust-continuum. We find the effect of dust on observed sizes reduces with increasing wavelength from the UV to optical (sim0.6 times the UV at 0.4mum), with no evolution in FIR sizes. Observed sizes vary within 0.4-1.2 times the intrinsic sizes at different signal to noise ratios (SNR = 5-20) across redshifts. The effect of PSF and noise makes bright structures prominent, whereas fainter regions blend with noise, leading to an underestimation (factor of 0.4-0.8) of sizes at SNR=5. At SNR=15-20, the underestimation reduces (factor of 0.6-0.9) at z=5-8 but due to PSF, at z=9-10, bright cores are dominant, resulting in an overestimation (factor of 1.0-1.2). For ALMA, low resolution sizes are effected by noise which acts as extended emission. The size evolution in UV broadly agrees with current observational samples and other simulations. This work is one of the first to analyse the panchromatic sizes of a statistically significant sample of simulated high-redshift galaxies, complementing a growing body of research highlighting the importance of conducting an equivalent comparison between observed galaxies and their simulated counterparts in the early Universe.
rd-spiral: An open-source Python library for learning 2D reaction-diffusion dynamics through pseudo-spectral method
We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.
Tight High Probability Bounds for Linear Stochastic Approximation with Fixed Stepsize
This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.
Near-Optimal Cryptographic Hardness of Agnostically Learning Halfspaces and ReLU Regression under Gaussian Marginals
We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.
On the chromatic number of random triangle-free graphs
We study the chromatic number of typical triangle-free graphs with Theta left( n^{3/2} (log n)^{1/2} right) edges and establish the width of the scaling window for the transitions from chi = 3 to chi = 4 and from chi = 4 to chi = 5. The transition from 3- to 4-colorability has scaling window of width Theta(n^{4/3} (log n)^{-1/3}). To prove this, we show a high probability equivalence of the 3-colorability of a random triangle-free graph at this density and the satisfiability of an instance of bipartite random 2-SAT, for which we establish the width of the scaling window following the techniques of Bollob{\'a}s, Borgs, Chayes, Kim, and Wilson. The transition from 4- to 5-colorability has scaling window of width Theta(n^{3/2} (log n)^{-1/2}). To prove this, we show a high probability equivalence of the 4-colorability of a random triangle-free graph at this density and the simultaneous 2-colorability of two independent Erdos--R\'enyi random graphs. For this transition, we also establish the limiting probability of 4-colorability inside the scaling window.
Minimum Width of Leaky-ReLU Neural Networks for Uniform Universal Approximation
The study of universal approximation properties (UAP) for neural networks (NN) has a long history. When the network width is unlimited, only a single hidden layer is sufficient for UAP. In contrast, when the depth is unlimited, the width for UAP needs to be not less than the critical width w^*_{min}=max(d_x,d_y), where d_x and d_y are the dimensions of the input and output, respectively. Recently, cai2022achieve shows that a leaky-ReLU NN with this critical width can achieve UAP for L^p functions on a compact domain K, i.e., the UAP for L^p(K,R^{d_y}). This paper examines a uniform UAP for the function class C(K,R^{d_y}) and gives the exact minimum width of the leaky-ReLU NN as w_{min}=max(d_x+1,d_y)+1_{d_y=d_x+1}, which involves the effects of the output dimensions. To obtain this result, we propose a novel lift-flow-discretization approach that shows that the uniform UAP has a deep connection with topological theory.
Predictable Compression Failures: Why Language Models Actually Hallucinate
Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.
A theory of representation learning gives a deep generalisation of kernel methods
The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.
Maximal Initial Learning Rates in Deep ReLU Networks
Training a neural network requires choosing a suitable learning rate, which involves a trade-off between speed and effectiveness of convergence. While there has been considerable theoretical and empirical analysis of how large the learning rate can be, most prior work focuses only on late-stage training. In this work, we introduce the maximal initial learning rate eta^{ast} - the largest learning rate at which a randomly initialized neural network can successfully begin training and achieve (at least) a given threshold accuracy. Using a simple approach to estimate eta^{ast}, we observe that in constant-width fully-connected ReLU networks, eta^{ast} behaves differently from the maximum learning rate later in training. Specifically, we find that eta^{ast} is well predicted as a power of depth times width, provided that (i) the width of the network is sufficiently large compared to the depth, and (ii) the input layer is trained at a relatively small learning rate. We further analyze the relationship between eta^{ast} and the sharpness lambda_{1} of the network at initialization, indicating they are closely though not inversely related. We formally prove bounds for lambda_{1} in terms of depth times width that align with our empirical results.
Bayesian machine learning via category theory
From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.
MLE convergence speed to information projection of exponential family: Criterion for model dimension and sample size -- complete proof version--
For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.
Sqrt(d) Dimension Dependence of Langevin Monte Carlo
This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.
Approximating the Convex Hull via Metric Space Magnitude
Magnitude of a finite metric space and the related notion of magnitude functions on metric spaces is an active area of research in algebraic topology. Magnitude originally arose in the context of biology, where it represents the number of effective species in an environment; when applied to a one-parameter family of metric spaces tX with scale parameter t, the magnitude captures much of the underlying geometry of the space. Prior work has mostly focussed on properties of magnitude in a global sense; in this paper we restrict the sets to finite subsets of Euclidean space and investigate its individual components. We give an explicit formula for the corrected inclusion-exclusion principle, and define a quantity associated with each point, called the moment which gives an intrinsic ordering to the points. We exploit this in order to form an algorithm which approximates the convex hull.
Convergence of local times of stochastic processes associated with resistance forms
In this paper, it is shown that if a sequence of resistance metric spaces equipped with measures converges with respect to the local Gromov-Hausdorff-vague topology, and certain non-explosion and metric-entropy conditions are satisfied, then the associated stochastic processes and their local times also converge. The metric-entropy condition can be checked by applying volume estimates of balls. Whilst similar results have been proved previously, the approach of this article is more widely applicable. Indeed, we recover various known conclusions for scaling limits of some deterministic self-similar fractal graphs, critical Galton-Watson trees, the critical Erdos-R\'enyi random graph and the configuration model (in the latter two cases, we prove for the first time the convergence of the models with respect to the resistance metric and also, for the configuration model, we overcome an error in the existing proof of local time convergence). Moreover, we derive new ones for scaling limits of uniform spanning trees and random recursive fractals. The metric-entropy condition also implies convergence of associated Gaussian processes.
Bootstrability in Line-Defect CFT with Improved Truncation Methods
We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.
A New Rejection Sampling Approach to k-means++ With Improved Trade-Offs
The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.
Faster logconcave sampling from a cold start in high dimension
We present a faster algorithm to generate a warm start for sampling an arbitrary logconcave density specified by an evaluation oracle, leading to the first sub-cubic sampling algorithms for inputs in (near-)isotropic position. A long line of prior work incurred a warm-start penalty of at least linear in the dimension, hitting a cubic barrier, even for the special case of uniform sampling from convex bodies. Our improvement relies on two key ingredients of independent interest. (1) We show how to sample given a warm start in weaker notions of distance, in particular q-R\'enyi divergence for q=mathcal{O}(1), whereas previous analyses required stringent infty-R\'enyi divergence (with the exception of Hit-and-Run, whose known mixing time is higher). This marks the first improvement in the required warmness since Lov\'asz and Simonovits (1991). (2) We refine and generalize the log-Sobolev inequality of Lee and Vempala (2018), originally established for isotropic logconcave distributions in terms of the diameter of the support, to logconcave distributions in terms of a geometric average of the support diameter and the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.
Sparse Linear Regression is Easy on Random Supports
Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.
Representation Tradeoffs for Hyperbolic Embeddings
Hyperbolic embeddings offer excellent quality with few dimensions when embedding hierarchical data structures like synonym or type hierarchies. Given a tree, we give a combinatorial construction that embeds the tree in hyperbolic space with arbitrarily low distortion without using optimization. On WordNet, our combinatorial embedding obtains a mean-average-precision of 0.989 with only two dimensions, while Nickel et al.'s recent construction obtains 0.87 using 200 dimensions. We provide upper and lower bounds that allow us to characterize the precision-dimensionality tradeoff inherent in any hyperbolic embedding. To embed general metric spaces, we propose a hyperbolic generalization of multidimensional scaling (h-MDS). We show how to perform exact recovery of hyperbolic points from distances, provide a perturbation analysis, and give a recovery result that allows us to reduce dimensionality. The h-MDS approach offers consistently low distortion even with few dimensions across several datasets. Finally, we extract lessons from the algorithms and theory above to design a PyTorch-based implementation that can handle incomplete information and is scalable.
Weighted least-squares approximation with determinantal point processes and generalized volume sampling
We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.
On Kinetic Optimal Probability Paths for Generative Models
Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.
MetaCluster: Enabling Deep Compression of Kolmogorov-Arnold Network
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) replace scalar weights with per-edge vectors of basis coefficients, thereby boosting expressivity and accuracy but at the same time resulting in a multiplicative increase in parameters and memory. We propose MetaCluster, a framework that makes KANs highly compressible without sacrificing accuracy. Specifically, a lightweight meta-learner, trained jointly with the KAN, is used to map low-dimensional embedding to coefficient vectors, shaping them to lie on a low-dimensional manifold that is amenable to clustering. We then run K-means in coefficient space and replace per-edge vectors with shared centroids. Afterwards, the meta-learner can be discarded, and a brief fine-tuning of the centroid codebook recovers any residual accuracy loss. The resulting model stores only a small codebook and per-edge indices, exploiting the vector nature of KAN parameters to amortize storage across multiple coefficients. On MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100, across standard KANs and ConvKANs using multiple basis functions, MetaCluster achieves a reduction of up to 80times in parameter storage, with no loss in accuracy. Code will be released upon publication.
Sample Complexity Bounds for Learning High-dimensional Simplices in Noisy Regimes
In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.
Feature Learning and Generalization in Deep Networks with Orthogonal Weights
Fully-connected deep neural networks with weights initialized from independent Gaussian distributions can be tuned to criticality, which prevents the exponential growth or decay of signals propagating through the network. However, such networks still exhibit fluctuations that grow linearly with the depth of the network, which may impair the training of networks with width comparable to depth. We show analytically that rectangular networks with tanh activations and weights initialized from the ensemble of orthogonal matrices have corresponding preactivation fluctuations which are independent of depth, to leading order in inverse width. Moreover, we demonstrate numerically that, at initialization, all correlators involving the neural tangent kernel (NTK) and its descendants at leading order in inverse width -- which govern the evolution of observables during training -- saturate at a depth of sim 20, rather than growing without bound as in the case of Gaussian initializations. We speculate that this structure preserves finite-width feature learning while reducing overall noise, thus improving both generalization and training speed. We provide some experimental justification by relating empirical measurements of the NTK to the superior performance of deep nonlinear orthogonal networks trained under full-batch gradient descent on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 classification tasks.
Second-Order Kernel Online Convex Optimization with Adaptive Sketching
Kernel online convex optimization (KOCO) is a framework combining the expressiveness of non-parametric kernel models with the regret guarantees of online learning. First-order KOCO methods such as functional gradient descent require only O(t) time and space per iteration, and, when the only information on the losses is their convexity, achieve a minimax optimal O(T) regret. Nonetheless, many common losses in kernel problems, such as squared loss, logistic loss, and squared hinge loss posses stronger curvature that can be exploited. In this case, second-order KOCO methods achieve O(log(Det(K))) regret, which we show scales as O(d_{eff}log T), where d_{eff} is the effective dimension of the problem and is usually much smaller than O(T). The main drawback of second-order methods is their much higher O(t^2) space and time complexity. In this paper, we introduce kernel online Newton step (KONS), a new second-order KOCO method that also achieves O(d_{eff}log T) regret. To address the computational complexity of second-order methods, we introduce a new matrix sketching algorithm for the kernel matrix K_t, and show that for a chosen parameter γleq 1 our Sketched-KONS reduces the space and time complexity by a factor of γ^2 to O(t^2γ^2) space and time per iteration, while incurring only 1/γ times more regret.
An Efficient Tester-Learner for Halfspaces
We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.
A synthetic approach to Markov kernels, conditional independence and theorems on sufficient statistics
We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.
Generalized Kernel Thinning
The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.
Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series
We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.
High-dimensional Location Estimation via Norm Concentration for Subgamma Vectors
In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.
Near-Optimal Quantum Coreset Construction Algorithms for Clustering
k-Clustering in R^d (e.g., k-median and k-means) is a fundamental machine learning problem. While near-linear time approximation algorithms were known in the classical setting for a dataset with cardinality n, it remains open to find sublinear-time quantum algorithms. We give quantum algorithms that find coresets for k-clustering in R^d with O(nkd^{3/2}) query complexity. Our coreset reduces the input size from n to poly(kepsilon^{-1}d), so that existing alpha-approximation algorithms for clustering can run on top of it and yield (1 + epsilon)alpha-approximation. This eventually yields a quadratic speedup for various k-clustering approximation algorithms. We complement our algorithm with a nearly matching lower bound, that any quantum algorithm must make Omega(nk) queries in order to achieve even O(1)-approximation for k-clustering.
Analytical confidence intervals for the number of different objects in data streams
This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.
Generalized Polyak Step Size for First Order Optimization with Momentum
In machine learning applications, it is well known that carefully designed learning rate (step size) schedules can significantly improve the convergence of commonly used first-order optimization algorithms. Therefore how to set step size adaptively becomes an important research question. A popular and effective method is the Polyak step size, which sets step size adaptively for gradient descent or stochastic gradient descent without the need to estimate the smoothness parameter of the objective function. However, there has not been a principled way to generalize the Polyak step size for algorithms with momentum accelerations. This paper presents a general framework to set the learning rate adaptively for first-order optimization methods with momentum, motivated by the derivation of Polyak step size. It is shown that the resulting methods are much less sensitive to the choice of momentum parameter and may avoid the oscillation of the heavy-ball method on ill-conditioned problems. These adaptive step sizes are further extended to the stochastic settings, which are attractive choices for stochastic gradient descent with momentum. Our methods are demonstrated to be more effective for stochastic gradient methods than prior adaptive step size algorithms in large-scale machine learning tasks.
Conformal Risk Control
We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.
The Numerical Stability of Hyperbolic Representation Learning
Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.
The snake in the Brownian sphere
The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.
Eliciting Fine-Tuned Transformer Capabilities via Inference-Time Techniques
Large language models have transformed natural language processing, yet supervised fine-tuning (SFT) remains computationally intensive. This paper formally proves that capabilities acquired through SFT can be approximated by a base transformer model using inference-time techniques, specifically in-context learning (ICL), without altering model parameters, under idealized assumptions including unbounded computational resources and access to the fine-tuning dataset. We extend these results to practical scenarios with finite context lengths and partial dataset access. For text generation tasks with fixed output length l, datasets of size Oleft( m V{varepsilon^2} log m{delta} right) or, with bounded context, Oleft( l log V{varepsilon^2} log 1{delta} right) suffice to approximate fine-tuned behavior across m contexts within error varepsilon, where V is the vocabulary size and delta is the failure probability. For linear classification, datasets of size Oleft( d{varepsilon} right) or, with fixed context, Oleft( 1{varepsilon^2} log 1{delta} right) are sufficient, where d is the input dimension. Grounded in the Turing completeness of transformers, these results provide a theoretical foundation for resource-efficient deployment of large language models, with practical techniques like retrieval-augmented generation bridging theory to real-world applications.
Kolmogorov-Arnold Neural Networks for High-Entropy Alloys Design
A wide range of deep learning-based machine learning techniques are extensively applied to the design of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), yielding numerous valuable insights. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) is a recently developed architecture that aims to improve both the accuracy and interpretability of input features. In this work, we explore three different datasets for HEA design and demonstrate the application of KAN for both classification and regression models. In the first example, we use a KAN classification model to predict the probability of single-phase formation in high-entropy carbide ceramics based on various properties such as mixing enthalpy and valence electron concentration. In the second example, we employ a KAN regression model to predict the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of HEAs based on their chemical composition and process conditions including annealing time, cold rolling percentage, and homogenization temperature. The third example involves a KAN classification model to determine whether a certain composition is an HEA or non-HEA, followed by a KAN regressor model to predict the bulk modulus of the identified HEA, aiming to identify HEAs with high bulk modulus. In all three examples, KAN either outperform or match the performance in terms of accuracy such as F1 score for classification and Mean Square Error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for regression of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) by demonstrating the efficacy of KAN in handling both classification and regression tasks. We provide a promising direction for future research to explore advanced machine learning techniques, which lead to more accurate predictions and better interpretability of complex materials, ultimately accelerating the discovery and optimization of HEAs with desirable properties.
Neural Networks Generalize on Low Complexity Data
We show that feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation generalize on low complexity data, suitably defined. Given i.i.d. data generated from a simple programming language, the minimum description length (MDL) feedforward neural network which interpolates the data generalizes with high probability. We define this simple programming language, along with a notion of description length of such networks. We provide several examples on basic computational tasks, such as checking primality of a natural number, and more. For primality testing, our theorem shows the following. Suppose that we draw an i.i.d. sample of Theta(N^{delta}ln N) numbers uniformly at random from 1 to N, where deltain (0,1). For each number x_i, let y_i = 1 if x_i is a prime and 0 if it is not. Then with high probability, the MDL network fitted to this data accurately answers whether a newly drawn number between 1 and N is a prime or not, with test error leq O(N^{-delta}). Note that the network is not designed to detect primes; minimum description learning discovers a network which does so.
Do logarithmic proximity measures outperform plain ones in graph clustering?
We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.
Multi-layer random features and the approximation power of neural networks
A neural architecture with randomly initialized weights, in the infinite width limit, is equivalent to a Gaussian Random Field whose covariance function is the so-called Neural Network Gaussian Process kernel (NNGP). We prove that a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) defined by the NNGP contains only functions that can be approximated by the architecture. To achieve a certain approximation error the required number of neurons in each layer is defined by the RKHS norm of the target function. Moreover, the approximation can be constructed from a supervised dataset by a random multi-layer representation of an input vector, together with training of the last layer's weights. For a 2-layer NN and a domain equal to an n-1-dimensional sphere in {mathbb R}^n, we compare the number of neurons required by Barron's theorem and by the multi-layer features construction. We show that if eigenvalues of the integral operator of the NNGP decay slower than k^{-n-2{3}} where k is an order of an eigenvalue, then our theorem guarantees a more succinct neural network approximation than Barron's theorem. We also make some computational experiments to verify our theoretical findings. Our experiments show that realistic neural networks easily learn target functions even when both theorems do not give any guarantees.
Fat Polygonal Partitions with Applications to Visualization and Embeddings
Let T be a rooted and weighted tree, where the weight of any node is equal to the sum of the weights of its children. The popular Treemap algorithm visualizes such a tree as a hierarchical partition of a square into rectangles, where the area of the rectangle corresponding to any node in T is equal to the weight of that node. The aspect ratio of the rectangles in such a rectangular partition necessarily depends on the weights and can become arbitrarily high. We introduce a new hierarchical partition scheme, called a polygonal partition, which uses convex polygons rather than just rectangles. We present two methods for constructing polygonal partitions, both having guarantees on the worst-case aspect ratio of the constructed polygons; in particular, both methods guarantee a bound on the aspect ratio that is independent of the weights of the nodes. We also consider rectangular partitions with slack, where the areas of the rectangles may differ slightly from the weights of the corresponding nodes. We show that this makes it possible to obtain partitions with constant aspect ratio. This result generalizes to hyper-rectangular partitions in R^d. We use these partitions with slack for embedding ultrametrics into d-dimensional Euclidean space: we give a rm polylog(Delta)-approximation algorithm for embedding n-point ultrametrics into R^d with minimum distortion, where Delta denotes the spread of the metric, i.e., the ratio between the largest and the smallest distance between two points. The previously best-known approximation ratio for this problem was polynomial in n. This is the first algorithm for embedding a non-trivial family of weighted-graph metrics into a space of constant dimension that achieves polylogarithmic approximation ratio.
The Fyodorov-Hiary-Keating Conjecture. I
By analogy with conjectures for random matrices, Fyodorov-Hiary-Keating and Fyodorov-Keating proposed precise asymptotics for the maximum of the Riemann zeta function in a typical short interval on the critical line. In this paper, we settle the upper bound part of their conjecture in a strong form. More precisely, we show that the measure of those T leq t leq 2T for which $ max_{|h| leq 1} |zeta(1/2 + i t + i h)| > e^y log T {(loglog T)^{3/4}} is bounded by Cy e^{-2y} uniformly in y \geq 1. This is expected to be optimal for y= O(\log\log T). This upper bound is sharper than what is known in the context of random matrices, since it gives (uniform) decay rates in y$. In a subsequent paper we will obtain matching lower bounds.
Virtual Width Networks
We introduce Virtual Width Networks (VWN), a framework that delivers the benefits of wider representations without incurring the quadratic cost of increasing the hidden size. VWN decouples representational width from backbone width, expanding the embedding space while keeping backbone compute nearly constant. In our large-scale experiment, an 8-times expansion accelerates optimization by over 2 times for next-token and 3 times for next-2-token prediction. The advantage amplifies over training as both the loss gap grows and the convergence-speedup ratio increases, showing that VWN is not only token-efficient but also increasingly effective with scale. Moreover, we identify an approximately log-linear scaling relation between virtual width and loss reduction, offering an initial empirical basis and motivation for exploring virtual-width scaling as a new dimension of large-model efficiency.
Optimistic optimization of a Brownian
We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.
First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) IV: The size evolution of galaxies at zgeq5
We present the intrinsic and observed sizes of galaxies at zgeq5 in the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES). We employ the large effective volume of FLARES to produce a sizeable sample of high redshift galaxies with intrinsic and observed luminosities and half light radii in a range of rest frame UV and visual photometric bands. This sample contains a significant number of intrinsically ultra-compact galaxies in the far-UV (1500 angstrom), leading to a negative intrinsic far-UV size-luminosity relation. However, after the inclusion of the effects of dust these same compact galaxies exhibit observed sizes that are as much as 50 times larger than those measured from the intrinsic emission, and broadly agree with a range of observational samples. This increase in size is driven by the concentration of dust in the core of galaxies, heavily attenuating the intrinsically brightest regions. At fixed luminosity we find a galaxy size redshift evolution with a slope of m=1.21-1.87 depending on the luminosity sample in question, and we demonstrate the wavelength dependence of the size-luminosity relation which will soon be probed by the Webb Space Telescope.
Optimal Embeddings of Posets in Hypercubes
Given a finite poset mathcal P, the hypercube-height, denoted by h^*(mathcal P), is defined to be the largest h such that, for any natural number n, the subsets of [n] of size less than h do not contain an induced copy of mathcal P. The hypercube-width, denoted by w^*(mathcal P), is the smallest w such that the subsets of [w] of size at most h^*(mathcal P) contain an induced copy of mathcal P. In other words, h^*(mathcal P) asks how `low' can a poset be embedded, and w^*(mathcal P) asks for the first hypercube in which such an `optimal' embedding occurs. These notions were introduced by Bastide, Groenland, Ivan and Johnston in connection to upper bounds for the poset saturation numbers. While it is not hard to see that h^*(mathcal P)leq |mathcal P|-1 (and this bound can be tight), the hypercube-width has proved to be much more elusive. It was shown by the authors mentioned above that w^*(mathcal P)leq|mathcal P|^2/4, but they conjectured that in fact w^*(mathcal P)leq |mathcal P| for any finite poset mathcal P. In this paper we prove this conjecture. The proof uses Hall's theorem for bipartite graphs as a precision tool for modifing an existing copy of our poset.
Scaling Properties of Avalanche Activity in the Two-Dimensional Abelian Sandpile Model
We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.
On almost sure limit theorems for heavy-tailed products of long-range dependent linear processes
Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.
Quantum-Enhanced Conformal Methods for Multi-Output Uncertainty: A Holistic Exploration and Experimental Analysis
In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.
Parabolic-elliptic and indirect-direct simplifications in chemotaxis systems driven by indirect signalling
Singular limits for the following indirect signalling chemotaxis system align* \left\{ array{lllllll} \partial_t n = \Delta n - \nabla \cdot (n \nabla c ) & in \Omega\times(0,\infty) , \varepsilon \partial_t c = \Delta c - c + w & in \Omega\times(0,\infty), \varepsilon \partial_t w = \tau \Delta w - w + n & in \Omega\times (0,\infty), \partial_\nu n = \partial_\nu c = \partial_\nu w = 0, &on \partial\Omega\times (0,\infty) %(n,c,w)_{t=0} = (n_0,c_0,w_0) & on \Omega, array \right. align* are investigated. More precisely, we study parabolic-elliptic simplification, or PES, varepsilonto 0^+ with fixed tau>0 up to the critical dimension N=4, and indirect-direct simplification, or IDS, (varepsilon,tau)to (0^+,0^+) up to the critical dimension N=2. These are relevant in biological situations where the signalling process is on a much faster time scale compared to the species diffusion and all interactions. Showing singular limits in critical dimensions is challenging. To deal with the PES, we carefully combine the entropy function, an Adam-type inequality, the regularisation of slow evolution, and an energy equation method to obtain strong convergence in representative spaces. For the IDS, a bootstrap argument concerning the L^p-energy function is devised, which allows us to obtain suitable uniform bounds for the singular limits. Moreover, in both scenarios, we also present the convergence rates, where the effect of the initial layer and the convergence to the critical manifold are also revealed.
A structural equation formulation for general quasi-periodic Gaussian processes
This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.
Estimating Shape Distances on Neural Representations with Limited Samples
Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.
Sketched Ridgeless Linear Regression: The Role of Downsampling
Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.
The magnitude vector of images
The magnitude of a finite metric space has recently emerged as a novel invariant quantity, allowing to measure the effective size of a metric space. Despite encouraging first results demonstrating the descriptive abilities of the magnitude, such as being able to detect the boundary of a metric space, the potential use cases of magnitude remain under-explored. In this work, we investigate the properties of the magnitude on images, an important data modality in many machine learning applications. By endowing each individual images with its own metric space, we are able to define the concept of magnitude on images and analyse the individual contribution of each pixel with the magnitude vector. In particular, we theoretically show that the previously known properties of boundary detection translate to edge detection abilities in images. Furthermore, we demonstrate practical use cases of magnitude for machine learning applications and propose a novel magnitude model that consists of a computationally efficient magnitude computation and a learnable metric. By doing so, we address the computational hurdle that used to make magnitude impractical for many applications and open the way for the adoption of magnitude in machine learning research.
Uncertainty quantification for stationary and time-dependent PDEs subject to Gevrey regular random domain deformations
We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.
Procedural Generation of Grain Orientations using the Wave Function Collapse Algorithm
Statistics of grain sizes and orientations in metals correlate to the material's mechanical properties. Reproducing representative volume elements for further analysis of deformation and failure in metals, like 316L stainless steel, is particularly important due to their wide use in manufacturing goods today. Two approaches, initially created for video games, were considered for the procedural generation of representative grain microstructures. The first is the Wave Function Collapse (WFC) algorithm, and the second is constraint propagation and probabilistic inference through Markov Junior, a free and open-source software. This study aimed to investigate these two algorithms' effectiveness in using reference electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and recreating a statistically similar one that could be used in further research. It utilized two stainless steel EBSD maps as references to test both algorithms. First, the WFC algorithm was too constricting and, thus, incapable of producing images that resembled EBSDs. The second, MarkovJunior, was much more effective in creating a Voronoi tessellation that could be used to create an EBSD map in Python. When comparing the results between the reference and the generated EBSD, we discovered that the orientation and volume fractions were extremely similar. With the study, it was concluded that MarkovJunior is an effective machine learning tool that can reproduce representative grain microstructures.
Intensity statistics inside an open wave-chaotic cavity with broken time-reversal invariance
Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.
Uniform approximation in classical weak convergence theory
A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.
Unified Scaling Laws for Compressed Representations
Scaling laws have shaped recent advances in machine learning by enabling predictable scaling of model performance based on model size, computation, and data volume. Concurrently, the rise in computational cost for AI has motivated model compression techniques, notably quantization and sparsification, which have emerged to mitigate the steep computational demands associated with large-scale training and inference. This paper investigates the interplay between scaling laws and compression formats, exploring whether a unified scaling framework can accurately predict model performance when training occurs over various compressed representations, such as sparse, scalar-quantized, sparse-quantized or even vector-quantized formats. Our key contributions include validating a general scaling law formulation and showing that it is applicable both individually but also composably across compression types. Based on this, our main finding is demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that there exists a simple "capacity" metric -- based on the representation's ability to fit random Gaussian data -- which can robustly predict parameter efficiency across multiple compressed representations. On the practical side, we extend our formulation to directly compare the accuracy potential of different compressed formats, and to derive better algorithms for training over sparse-quantized formats.
Fractional divergence-measure fields, Leibniz rule and Gauss-Green formula
Given alphain(0,1] and pin[1,+infty], we define the space DM^{alpha,p}(mathbb R^n) of L^p vector fields whose alpha-divergence is a finite Radon measure, extending the theory of divergence-measure vector fields to the distributional fractional setting. Our main results concern the absolute continuity properties of the alpha-divergence-measure with respect to the Hausdorff measure and fractional analogues of the Leibniz rule and the Gauss-Green formula. The sharpness of our results is discussed via some explicit examples.
Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models
We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.
Sampling with Mirrored Stein Operators
We introduce a new family of particle evolution samplers suitable for constrained domains and non-Euclidean geometries. Stein Variational Mirror Descent and Mirrored Stein Variational Gradient Descent minimize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to constrained target distributions by evolving particles in a dual space defined by a mirror map. Stein Variational Natural Gradient exploits non-Euclidean geometry to more efficiently minimize the KL divergence to unconstrained targets. We derive these samplers from a new class of mirrored Stein operators and adaptive kernels developed in this work. We demonstrate that these new samplers yield accurate approximations to distributions on the simplex, deliver valid confidence intervals in post-selection inference, and converge more rapidly than prior methods in large-scale unconstrained posterior inference. Finally, we establish the convergence of our new procedures under verifiable conditions on the target distribution.
On Differentially Private String Distances
Given a database of bit strings A_1,ldots,A_min {0,1}^n, a fundamental data structure task is to estimate the distances between a given query Bin {0,1}^n with all the strings in the database. In addition, one might further want to ensure the integrity of the database by releasing these distance statistics in a secure manner. In this work, we propose differentially private (DP) data structures for this type of tasks, with a focus on Hamming and edit distance. On top of the strong privacy guarantees, our data structures are also time- and space-efficient. In particular, our data structure is epsilon-DP against any sequence of queries of arbitrary length, and for any query B such that the maximum distance to any string in the database is at most k, we output m distance estimates. Moreover, - For Hamming distance, our data structure answers any query in widetilde O(mk+n) time and each estimate deviates from the true distance by at most widetilde O(k/e^{epsilon/log k}); - For edit distance, our data structure answers any query in widetilde O(mk^2+n) time and each estimate deviates from the true distance by at most widetilde O(k/e^{epsilon/(log k log n)}). For moderate k, both data structures support sublinear query operations. We obtain these results via a novel adaptation of the randomized response technique as a bit flipping procedure, applied to the sketched strings.
A Dynamical Model of Neural Scaling Laws
On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.
Conformal Prediction with Missing Values
Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.
Linear statistics for Coulomb gases: higher order cumulants
We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.
On Excess Mass Behavior in Gaussian Mixture Models with Orlicz-Wasserstein Distances
Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.
Nonintrusive approximation of parametrized limits of matrix power algorithms -- application to matrix inverses and log-determinants
We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.
The Slepian model based independent interval approximation of persistency and zero-level exceedance distributions
In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.
Optimal Online Generalized Linear Regression with Stochastic Noise and Its Application to Heteroscedastic Bandits
We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.
Quantifying the Rise and Fall of Complexity in Closed Systems: The Coffee Automaton
In contrast to entropy, which increases monotonically, the "complexity" or "interestingness" of closed systems seems intuitively to increase at first and then decrease as equilibrium is approached. For example, our universe lacked complex structures at the Big Bang and will also lack them after black holes evaporate and particles are dispersed. This paper makes an initial attempt to quantify this pattern. As a model system, we use a simple, two-dimensional cellular automaton that simulates the mixing of two liquids ("coffee" and "cream"). A plausible complexity measure is then the Kolmogorov complexity of a coarse-grained approximation of the automaton's state, which we dub the "apparent complexity." We study this complexity measure, and show analytically that it never becomes large when the liquid particles are non-interacting. By contrast, when the particles do interact, we give numerical evidence that the complexity reaches a maximum comparable to the "coffee cup's" horizontal dimension. We raise the problem of proving this behavior analytically.
A Nearly-Optimal Bound for Fast Regression with ell_infty Guarantee
Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.
Shortened LLaMA: A Simple Depth Pruning for Large Language Models
Structured pruning of modern large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a way of decreasing their high computational needs. Width pruning reduces the size of projection weight matrices (e.g., by removing attention heads) while maintaining the number of layers. Depth pruning, in contrast, removes entire layers or blocks, while keeping the size of the remaining weights unchanged. Most current research focuses on either width-only or a blend of width and depth pruning, with little comparative analysis between the two units (width vs. depth) concerning their impact on LLM inference efficiency. In this work, we show that a simple depth pruning approach can compete with recent width pruning methods in terms of zero-shot task performance. Our pruning method boosts inference speeds, especially under memory-constrained conditions that require limited batch sizes for running LLMs, where width pruning is ineffective. We hope this work can help deploy LLMs on local and edge devices.
Solving a Machine Learning Regression Problem Based on the Theory of Random Functions
This paper studies a machine learning regression problem as a multivariate approximation problem using the framework of the theory of random functions. An ab initio derivation of a regression method is proposed, starting from postulates of indifference. It is shown that if a probability measure on an infinite-dimensional function space possesses natural symmetries (invariance under translation, rotation, scaling, and Gaussianity), then the entire solution scheme, including the kernel form, the type of regularization, and the noise parameterization, follows analytically from these postulates. The resulting kernel coincides with a generalized polyharmonic spline; however, unlike existing approaches, it is not chosen empirically but arises as a consequence of the indifference principle. This result provides a theoretical foundation for a broad class of smoothing and interpolation methods, demonstrating their optimality in the absence of a priori information.
MatrixKAN: Parallelized Kolmogorov-Arnold Network
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) are a new class of neural network architecture representing a promising alternative to the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), demonstrating improved expressiveness and interpretability. However, KANs suffer from slow training and inference speeds relative to MLPs due in part to the recursive nature of the underlying B-spline calculations. This issue is particularly apparent with respect to KANs utilizing high-degree B-splines, as the number of required non-parallelizable recursions is proportional to B-spline degree. We solve this issue by proposing MatrixKAN, a novel optimization that parallelizes B-spline calculations with matrix representation and operations, thus significantly improving effective computation time for models utilizing high-degree B-splines. In this paper, we demonstrate the superior scaling of MatrixKAN's computation time relative to B-spline degree. Further, our experiments demonstrate speedups of approximately 40x relative to KAN, with significant additional speedup potential for larger datasets or higher spline degrees.
Optimal Sample Complexity of Contrastive Learning
Contrastive learning is a highly successful technique for learning representations of data from labeled tuples, specifying the distance relations within the tuple. We study the sample complexity of contrastive learning, i.e. the minimum number of labeled tuples sufficient for getting high generalization accuracy. We give tight bounds on the sample complexity in a variety of settings, focusing on arbitrary distance functions, both general ell_p-distances, and tree metrics. Our main result is an (almost) optimal bound on the sample complexity of learning ell_p-distances for integer p. For any p ge 1 we show that tilde Theta(min(nd,n^2)) labeled tuples are necessary and sufficient for learning d-dimensional representations of n-point datasets. Our results hold for an arbitrary distribution of the input samples and are based on giving the corresponding bounds on the Vapnik-Chervonenkis/Natarajan dimension of the associated problems. We further show that the theoretical bounds on sample complexity obtained via VC/Natarajan dimension can have strong predictive power for experimental results, in contrast with the folklore belief about a substantial gap between the statistical learning theory and the practice of deep learning.
Comparative Analysis of Phenomenological Approximations of the Light Curves of Eclipsing Binary Stars with Additional Parameters
A comparative analysis of the special shapes (patterns, profiles) of the eclipses applied for the phenomenological modeling of the light curves of eclipsing binary stars is conducted. Families of functions are considered, generalizing local approximations (Andronov, 2010, 2012) and the functions theoretically unlimited in a width, based on a Gaussian (Mikulasek, 2015). For an analysis, the light curve of the star V0882 Car = 2MASS J11080308 - 6145589 of the classic Algol - subtype (\beta Persei) is used. By analyzing dozens of modified functions with additional parameters, it was chosen the 14 best ones according to the criterion of the least sum of squares of deviations. The best are the functions with an additional parameter, describing profiles, which are limited in phase.
