Daily Papers

This paper sets forth a framework for deep reinforcement learning as applied to market making (DRLMM) for cryptocurrencies. Two advanced policy gradient-based algorithms were selected as agents to interact with an environment that represents the observation space through limit order book data, and order flow arrival statistics. Within the experiment, a forward-feed neural network is used as the function approximator and two reward functions are compared. The performance of each combination of agent and reward function is evaluated by daily and average trade returns. Using this DRLMM framework, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of deep reinforcement learning in solving stochastic inventory control challenges market makers face.

AI and data driven solutions have been applied to different fields and achieved outperforming and promising results. In this research work we apply k-Nearest Neighbours, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest classifiers for detecting the trend problem of three cryptocurrency markets. We use these classifiers to design a strategy to trade in those markets. Our input data in the experiments include price data with and without technical indicators in separate tests to see the effect of using them. Our test results on unseen data are very promising and show a great potential for this approach in helping investors with an expert system to exploit the market and gain profit. Our highest profit factor for an unseen 66 day span is 1.60. We also discuss limitations of these approaches and their potential impact on Efficient Market Hypothesis.

There has been a recent surge in interest in the application of artificial intelligence to automated trading. Reinforcement learning has been applied to single- and multi-instrument use cases, such as market making or portfolio management. This paper proposes a new approach to framing cryptocurrency market making as a reinforcement learning challenge by introducing an event-based environment wherein an event is defined as a change in price greater or less than a given threshold, as opposed to by tick or time-based events (e.g., every minute, hour, day, etc.). Two policy-based agents are trained to learn a market making trading strategy using eight days of training data and evaluate their performance using 30 days of testing data. Limit order book data recorded from Bitmex exchange is used to validate this approach, which demonstrates improved profit and stability compared to a time-based approach for both agents when using a simple multi-layer perceptron neural network for function approximation and seven different reward functions.

This paper explores neural network-based approaches for algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency markets. Our approach combines multi-timeframe trend analysis with high-frequency direction prediction networks, achieving positive risk-adjusted returns through statistical modeling and systematic market exploitation. The system integrates diverse data sources including market data, on-chain metrics, and orderbook dynamics, translating these into unified buy/sell pressure signals. We demonstrate how machine learning models can effectively capture cross-timeframe relationships, enabling sub-second trading decisions with statistical confidence.

In traditional financial markets, yield curves are widely available for countries (and, by extension, currencies), financial institutions, and large corporates. These curves are used to calibrate stochastic interest rate models, discount future cash flows, and price financial products. Yield curves, however, can be readily computed only because of the current size and structure of bond markets. In cryptocurrency markets, where fixed-rate lending and bonds are almost nonexistent as of early 2025, the yield curve associated with each currency must be estimated by other means. In this paper, we show how mathematical tools can be used to construct yield curves for cryptocurrencies by leveraging data from the highly developed markets for cryptocurrency derivatives.

High-Frequency Trading (HFT) is pivotal in cryptocurrency markets, demanding rapid decision-making. Social media platforms like Reddit offer valuable, yet underexplored, information for such high-frequency, short-term trading. This paper introduces PulseReddit, a novel dataset that is the first to align large-scale Reddit discussion data with high-frequency cryptocurrency market statistics for short-term trading analysis. We conduct an extensive empirical study using Large Language Model (LLM)-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) to investigate the impact of social sentiment from PulseReddit on trading performance. Our experiments conclude that MAS augmented with PulseReddit data achieve superior trading outcomes compared to traditional baselines, particularly in bull markets, and demonstrate robust adaptability across different market regimes. Furthermore, our research provides conclusive insights into the performance-efficiency trade-offs of different LLMs, detailing significant considerations for practical model selection in HFT applications. PulseReddit and our findings establish a foundation for advanced MAS research in HFT, demonstrating the tangible benefits of integrating social media.

Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which may suffer from the false positive issue due to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a practical approach to address backtest overfitting for cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning. First, we formulate the detection of backtest overfitting as a hypothesis test. Then, we train the DRL agents, estimate the probability of overfitting, and reject the overfitted agents, increasing the chance of good trading performance. Finally, on 10 cryptocurrencies over a testing period from 05/01/2022 to 06/27/2022 (during which the crypto market crashed two times), we show that the less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents have a higher return than that of more overfitted agents, an equal weight strategy, and the S&P DBM Index (market benchmark), offering confidence in possible deployment to a real market.

This paper will propose a novel machine learning based portfolio management method in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Previous researchers mainly focus on the prediction of the movement for specific cryptocurrency such as the bitcoin(BTC) and then trade according to the prediction. In contrast to the previous work that treats the cryptocurrencies independently, this paper manages a group of cryptocurrencies by analyzing the relative relationship. Specifically, in each time step, we utilize the neural network to predict the rank of the future return of the managed cryptocurrencies and place weights accordingly. By incorporating such cross-sectional information, the proposed methods is shown to profitable based on the backtesting experiments on the real daily cryptocurrency market data from May, 2020 to Nov, 2023. During this 3.5 years, the market experiences the full cycle of bullish, bearish and stagnant market conditions. Despite under such complex market conditions, the proposed method outperforms the existing methods and achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 and annualized return of 64.26%. Additionally, the proposed method is shown to be robust to the increase of transaction fee.

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile compared to traditional financial markets. Hence, forecasting its volatility is crucial for risk management. In this paper, we investigate CryptoQuant data (e.g. on-chain analytics, exchange and miner data) and whale-alert tweets, and explore their relationship to Bitcoin's next-day volatility, with a focus on extreme volatility spikes. We propose a deep learning Synthesizer Transformer model for forecasting volatility. Our results show that the model outperforms existing state-of-the-art models when forecasting extreme volatility spikes for Bitcoin using CryptoQuant data as well as whale-alert tweets. We analysed our model with the Captum XAI library to investigate which features are most important. We also backtested our prediction results with different baseline trading strategies and the results show that we are able to minimize drawdown while keeping steady profits. Our findings underscore that the proposed method is a useful tool for forecasting extreme volatility movements in the Bitcoin market.

In this research paper, we investigate into a paper named "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Financial Portfolio Management Problem" [arXiv:1706.10059]. It is a portfolio management problem which is solved by deep learning techniques. The original paper proposes a financial-model-free reinforcement learning framework, which consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. Three different instants are used to realize this framework, namely a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The performance is then examined by comparing to a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies. We have successfully replicated their implementations and evaluations. Besides, we further apply this framework in the stock market, instead of the cryptocurrency market that the original paper uses. The experiment in the cryptocurrency market is consistent with the original paper, which achieve superior returns. But it doesn't perform as well when applied in the stock market.

High-frequency trading (HFT) that executes algorithmic trading in short time scales, has recently occupied the majority of cryptocurrency market. Besides traditional quantitative trading methods, reinforcement learning (RL) has become another appealing approach for HFT due to its terrific ability of handling high-dimensional financial data and solving sophisticated sequential decision-making problems, e.g., hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) has shown its promising performance on second-level HFT by training a router to select only one sub-agent from the agent pool to execute the current transaction. However, existing RL methods for HFT still have some defects: 1) standard RL-based trading agents suffer from the overfitting issue, preventing them from making effective policy adjustments based on financial context; 2) due to the rapid changes in market conditions, investment decisions made by an individual agent are usually one-sided and highly biased, which might lead to significant loss in extreme markets. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement learning method On HFT, a.k.a. MacroHFT, which consists of two training phases: 1) we first train multiple types of sub-agents with the market data decomposed according to various financial indicators, specifically market trend and volatility, where each agent owns a conditional adapter to adjust its trading policy according to market conditions; 2) then we train a hyper-agent to mix the decisions from these sub-agents and output a consistently profitable meta-policy to handle rapid market fluctuations, equipped with a memory mechanism to enhance the capability of decision-making. Extensive experiments on various cryptocurrency markets demonstrate that MacroHFT can achieve state-of-the-art performance on minute-level trading tasks.

Perpetual futures are the most popular cryptocurrency derivatives. Perpetuals offer leveraged exposure to their underlying without rollover or direct ownership. Unlike fixed-maturity futures, perpetuals are not guaranteed to converge to the spot price. To minimize the gap between perpetual and spot prices, long investors periodically pay shorts a funding rate proportional to this difference. We derive no-arbitrage prices for perpetual futures in frictionless markets and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically, deviations from these prices in crypto are larger than in traditional currency markets, comove across currencies, and diminish over time. An implied arbitrage strategy yields high Sharpe ratios.

Cryptocurrency trading increasingly depends on timely integration of heterogeneous web information and market microstructure signals to support short-horizon decision making under extreme volatility. However, existing trading systems struggle to jointly reason over noisy multi-source web evidence while maintaining robustness to rapid price shocks at sub-second timescales. The first challenge lies in synthesizing unstructured web content, social sentiment, and structured OHLCV signals into coherent and interpretable trading decisions without amplifying spurious correlations, while the second challenge concerns risk control, as slow deliberative reasoning pipelines are ill-suited for handling abrupt market shocks that require immediate defensive responses. To address these challenges, we propose WebCryptoAgent, an agentic trading framework that decomposes web-informed decision making into modality-specific agents and consolidates their outputs into a unified evidence document for confidence-calibrated reasoning. We further introduce a decoupled control architecture that separates strategic hourly reasoning from a real-time second-level risk model, enabling fast shock detection and protective intervention independent of the trading loop. Extensive experiments on real-world cryptocurrency markets demonstrate that WebCryptoAgent improves trading stability, reduces spurious activity, and enhances tail-risk handling compared to existing baselines. Code will be available at https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/WebCryptoAgent.

The volatility and complex dynamics of cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges for accurate price forecasting. This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for cryptocurrency price prediction. The LSTM component captures temporal dependencies in historical price data, while XGBoost enhances prediction by modeling nonlinear relationships with auxiliary features such as sentiment scores and macroeconomic indicators. The model is evaluated on historical datasets of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Litecoin, incorporating both global and localized exchange data. Comparative analysis using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Min-Max Normalized Root Mean Square Error (MinMax RMSE) demonstrates that the LSTM+XGBoost hybrid consistently outperforms standalone models and traditional forecasting methods. This study underscores the potential of hybrid architectures in financial forecasting and provides insights into model adaptability across different cryptocurrencies and market contexts.

This paper presents a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio optimization strategy that integrates technical indicators and sentiment analysis to enhance investment decision-making. The proposed method employs the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to capture market momentum, while sentiment scores are extracted from news articles using the VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) model, with compound scores quantifying overall market tone. The large language model Google Gemini is used to further verify the sentiment scores predicted by VADER and give investment decisions. These technical indicator and sentiment signals are incorporated into the expected return estimates before applying mean-variance optimization with constraints on asset weights. The strategy is evaluated through a rolling-window backtest over cryptocurrency market data, with Bitcoin (BTC) and an equal-weighted portfolio of selected cryptocurrencies serving as benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a cumulative return of 38.72, substantially exceeding Bitcoin's 8.85 and the equal-weighted portfolio's 21.65 over the same period, and delivers a higher Sharpe ratio (1.1093 vs. 0.8853 and 1.0194, respectively). However, the strategy exhibits a larger maximum drawdown (-18.52%) compared to Bitcoin (-4.48%) and the equal-weighted portfolio (-11.02%), indicating higher short-term downside risk. These results highlight the potential of combining sentiment and technical signals to improve cryptocurrency portfolio performance, while also emphasizing the need to address risk exposure in volatile markets.

This study evaluates the performance of 41 machine learning models, including 21 classifiers and 20 regressors, in predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading. By examining these models under various market conditions, we highlight their accuracy, robustness, and adaptability to the volatile cryptocurrency market. Our comprehensive analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of each model, providing critical insights for developing effective trading strategies. We employ both machine learning metrics (e.g., Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error) and trading metrics (e.g., Profit and Loss percentage, Sharpe Ratio) to assess model performance. Our evaluation includes backtesting on historical data, forward testing on recent unseen data, and real-world trading scenarios, ensuring the robustness and practical applicability of our models. Key findings demonstrate that certain models, such as Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent, outperform others in terms of profit and risk management. These insights offer valuable guidance for traders and researchers aiming to leverage machine learning for cryptocurrency trading.

Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. This framework is realized in three instants in this work with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). They are, along with a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies, examined in three back-test experiments with a trading period of 30 minutes in a cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. All three instances of the framework monopolize the top three positions in all experiments, outdistancing other compared trading algorithms. Although with a high commission rate of 0.25% in the backtests, the framework is able to achieve at least 4-fold returns in 50 days.

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regime dependence tied to the 2024-2025 rate-cutting cycle. The recession risk signal from KXRECSSNBER proves more stable out of sample, delivering an MSFE ratio of 0.979 with Clark-West p = 0.020. The inflation channel, measured by CPI repricing on KXCPI contracts, predicts altcoin volatility for Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink with t-statistics ranging from -2.1 to -3.4 and out-of-sample gains for Ethereum at MSFE = 0.959 with p = 0.010 and Solana at p = 0.048. Both the Bitcoin--Fed-dovish and Chainlink--CPI specifications survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.05. Orthogonalization and baseline comparisons against Fed Funds futures, Treasury yields, and the Deribit implied volatility index confirm that these signals carry information not embedded in conventional financial instruments. The sample covers ten Kalshi event series and six cryptocurrency assets over January 2023 to March 2026.

Although Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly used in financial trading, it remains unclear whether they can reason and adapt in live markets, as most studies test models instead of agents, cover limited periods and assets, and rely on unverified data. To address these gaps, we introduce Agent Market Arena (AMA), the first lifelong, real-time benchmark for evaluating LLM-based trading agents across multiple markets. AMA integrates verified trading data, expert-checked news, and diverse agent architectures within a unified trading framework, enabling fair and continuous comparison under real conditions. It implements four agents, including InvestorAgent as a single-agent baseline, TradeAgent and HedgeFundAgent with different risk styles, and DeepFundAgent with memory-based reasoning, and evaluates them across GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, Claude-3.5-haiku, Claude-sonnet-4, and Gemini-2.0-flash. Live experiments on both cryptocurrency and stock markets demonstrate that agent frameworks display markedly distinct behavioral patterns, spanning from aggressive risk-taking to conservative decision-making, whereas model backbones contribute less to outcome variation. AMA thus establishes a foundation for rigorous, reproducible, and continuously evolving evaluation of financial reasoning and trading intelligence in LLM-based agents.

We document stable cross-asset patterns in cryptocurrency limit-order-book microstructure: the same engineered order book and trade features exhibit remarkably similar predictive importance and SHAP dependence shapes across assets spanning an order of magnitude in market capitalization (BTC, LTC, ETC, ENJ, ROSE). The data covers Binance Futures perpetual contract order books and trades on 1-second frequency starting from January 1st, 2022 up to October 12th, 2025. Using a unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with a direction-aware GMADL objective and time-series cross validation, we show that feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility. We connect these SHAP structures to microstructure theory (order flow imbalance, spread, and adverse selection) and validate tradability via a conservative top-of-book taker backtest as well as fixed depth maker backtest. Our primary novelty is a robustness analysis of a major flash crash, where the divergent performance of our taker and maker strategies empirically validates classic microstructure theories of adverse selection and highlights the systemic risks of algorithmic trading. Our results suggest a portable microstructure representation of short-horizon returns and motivate universal feature libraries for crypto markets.

Cryptocurrencies have evolved into an important asset class, providing a variety of benefits. However, they also present significant risks, such as market volatility and the potential for misuse in illegal activities. These risks underline the urgent need for a comprehensive regulatory framework to ensure consumer protection, market integrity, and financial stability. Yet, the global landscape of cryptocurrency regulation remains complex, marked by substantial variations in regulatory frameworks among different countries. This paper aims to study these differences by investigating the regulatory landscapes across various jurisdictions. We first discuss regulatory challenges and considerations, and then conduct a comparative analysis of international regulatory stances, approaches, and measures. We hope our study offers practical insights to enhance the understanding of global trends in cryptocurrency regulation.

The study proposes a quote-driven predictive automated market maker (AMM) platform with on-chain custody and settlement functions, alongside off-chain predictive reinforcement learning capabilities to improve liquidity provision of real-world AMMs. The proposed AMM architecture is an augmentation to the Uniswap V3, a cryptocurrency AMM protocol, by utilizing a novel market equilibrium pricing for reduced divergence and slippage loss. Further, the proposed architecture involves a predictive AMM capability, utilizing a deep hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Q-learning reinforcement learning framework that looks to improve market efficiency through better forecasts of liquidity concentration ranges, so liquidity starts moving to expected concentration ranges, prior to asset price movement, so that liquidity utilization is improved. The augmented protocol framework is expected have practical real-world implications, by (i) reducing divergence loss for liquidity providers, (ii) reducing slippage for crypto-asset traders, while (iii) improving capital efficiency for liquidity provision for the AMM protocol. To our best knowledge, there are no known protocol or literature that are proposing similar deep learning-augmented AMM that achieves similar capital efficiency and loss minimization objectives for practical real-world applications.

This paper presents a large-scale analysis of the cryptocurrency community on Reddit, shedding light on the intricate relationship between the evolution of their activity, emotional dynamics, and price movements. We analyze over 130M posts on 122 cryptocurrency-related subreddits using temporal analysis, statistical modeling, and emotion detection. While /r/CryptoCurrency and /r/dogecoin are the most active subreddits, we find an overall surge in cryptocurrency-related activity in 2021, followed by a sharp decline. We also uncover a strong relationship in terms of cross-correlation between online activity and the price of various coins, with the changes in the number of posts mostly leading the price changes. Backtesting analysis shows that a straightforward strategy based on the cross-correlation where one buys/sells a coin if the daily number of posts about it is greater/less than the previous would have led to a 3x return on investment. Finally, we shed light on the emotional dynamics of the cryptocurrency communities, finding that joy becomes a prominent indicator during upward market performance, while a decline in the market manifests an increase in anger.

Cryptocurrency price prediction is a significant challenge in quantitative investment. In recent years, time series models have made significant progress in financial forecasting tasks, especially in the stock market. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in cryptocurrency prediction. Specifically, time series models (e.g., LSTM, GRU, and Transformers) are effective at extracting temporal relationships in stock market data. However, in pure price-based cryptocurrency prediction, facing data with extreme volatility and wild swings, time series models have difficulty learning effective information. To validate our claim, we propose CryptoGAT, a lightweight Graph Attention Network that recasts cryptocurrency pure price prediction as a cross-asset graph problem rather than a temporal modeling task. Extensive experiments on real cryptocurrency benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed CryptoGAT outperforms various state-of-the-art forecasting methods with a notable margin. Moreover, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to explore the fundamental differences exposed by time series models in stock and cryptocurrency prediction: differences in predictability of the signal and cross-asset dependencies. This finding opens up new research directions for the cryptocurrency pure price prediction task and inspires further graph-based exploration in the field. The source code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CryptoGAT

Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify how execution delay, funding, fees, and slippage can inflate reported performance. We introduce AutoQuant, an execution-centric, alpha-agnostic framework for auditable strategy configuration selection. AutoQuant encodes strict T+1 execution semantics and no-look-ahead funding alignment, runs Bayesian optimization under realistic costs, and applies a two-stage double-screening protocol across held-out rolling windows and a cost-sensitivity grid. We show that fee-only and zero-cost backtests can materially overestimate annualized returns relative to a fully costed configuration, and that double screening tends to reduce drawdowns under the same strict semantics even when returns are not higher. A CSCV/PBO diagnostic indicates substantial residual overfitting risk, motivating AutoQuant as validation and governance infrastructure rather than a claim of persistent alpha. Returns are reported for small-account simulations with linear trading costs and without market impact or capacity modeling.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.

Agentic systems increasingly rely on reusable procedural capabilities, a.k.a., agentic skills, to execute long-horizon workflows reliably. These capabilities are callable modules that package procedural knowledge with explicit applicability conditions, execution policies, termination criteria, and reusable interfaces. Unlike one-off plans or atomic tool calls, skills operate (and often do well) across tasks. This paper maps the skill layer across the full lifecycle (discovery, practice, distillation, storage, composition, evaluation, and update) and introduces two complementary taxonomies. The first is a system-level set of seven design patterns capturing how skills are packaged and executed in practice, from metadata-driven progressive disclosure and executable code skills to self-evolving libraries and marketplace distribution. The second is an orthogonal representation times scope taxonomy describing what skills are (natural language, code, policy, hybrid) and what environments they operate over (web, OS, software engineering, robotics). We analyze the security and governance implications of skill-based agents, covering supply-chain risks, prompt injection via skill payloads, and trust-tiered execution, grounded by a case study of the ClawHavoc campaign in which nearly 1{,}200 malicious skills infiltrated a major agent marketplace, exfiltrating API keys, cryptocurrency wallets, and browser credentials at scale. We further survey deterministic evaluation approaches, anchored by recent benchmark evidence that curated skills can substantially improve agent success rates while self-generated skills may degrade them. We conclude with open challenges toward robust, verifiable, and certifiable skills for real-world autonomous agents.

The cryptocurrency is attracting more and more attention because of the blockchain technology. Ethereum is gaining a significant popularity in blockchain community, mainly due to the fact that it is designed in a way that enables developers to write smart contracts and decentralized applications (Dapps). There are many kinds of cryptocurrency information on the social network. The risks and fraud problems behind it have pushed many countries including the United States, South Korea, and China to make warnings and set up corresponding regulations. However, the security of Ethereum smart contracts has not gained much attention. Through the Deep Learning approach, we propose a method of sentiment analysis for Ethereum's community comments. In this research, we first collected the users' cryptocurrency comments from the social network and then fed to our LSTM + CNN model for training. Then we made prediction through sentiment analysis. With our research result, we have demonstrated that both the precision and the recall of sentiment analysis can achieve 0.80+. More importantly, we deploy our sentiment analysis1 on RatingToken and Coin Master (mobile application of Cheetah Mobile Blockchain Security Center23). We can effectively provide detail information to resolve the risks of being fake and fraud problems.

Decentralized prediction markets (DePMs) allow open participation in event-based wagering without fully relying on centralized intermediaries. We review the history of DePMs which date back to 2011 and includes hundreds of proposals. Perhaps surprising, modern DePMs like Polymarket deviate materially from earlier designs like Truthcoin and Augur v1. We use our review to present a modular workflow comprising eight stages: underlying infrastructure, market topic, share structure and pricing, market initialization, trading, market resolution, settlement, and archiving. For each module, we enumerate the design variants, analyzing trade-offs around decentralization, expressiveness, and manipulation resistance. We also identify open problems for researchers interested in this ecosystem.

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

We consider a project (model) owner that would like to train a model by utilizing the local private data and compute power of interested data owners, i.e., trainers. Our goal is to design a data marketplace for such decentralized collaborative/federated learning applications that simultaneously provides i) proof-of-contribution based reward allocation so that the trainers are compensated based on their contributions to the trained model; ii) privacy-preserving decentralized model training by avoiding any data movement from data owners; iii) robustness against malicious parties (e.g., trainers aiming to poison the model); iv) verifiability in the sense that the integrity, i.e., correctness, of all computations in the data market protocol including contribution assessment and outlier detection are verifiable through zero-knowledge proofs; and v) efficient and universal design. We propose a blockchain-based marketplace design to achieve all five objectives mentioned above. In our design, we utilize a distributed storage infrastructure and an aggregator aside from the project owner and the trainers. The aggregator is a processing node that performs certain computations, including assessing trainer contributions, removing outliers, and updating hyper-parameters. We execute the proposed data market through a blockchain smart contract. The deployed smart contract ensures that the project owner cannot evade payment, and honest trainers are rewarded based on their contributions at the end of training. Finally, we implement the building blocks of the proposed data market and demonstrate their applicability in practical scenarios through extensive experiments.

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.

OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own order book, and simulated trading nets -0.116 normalized payoff units per attempted trade under stated fee and slippage assumptions. We release the synchronized corpus and infrastructure that attempt produced and, to our knowledge, the first public millisecond-level Polymarket BTC / Binance BTC-USDT paired corpus with explicit pairing metadata. The frozen archive (tag v0.5.2) contains 727,098,247 deduplicated rows across 202 archival snapshots, with event data on 54 observed Polymarket days (57 Binance days) between 2026-02-12 and 2026-05-15, including 2,936,031 explicit lead-lag pairs, alongside a reproducible Rust pipeline for collection, millisecond pairing, Parquet export, and walk-forward calibration. Initial analyses establish Polymarket stylized facts (one-tick top-of-book spreads) and characterize cross-venue timing: an apparent 16 ms median lag on venue source clocks, with relative clock drift bounded to at most 6 ms over the archive but a remaining single-vantage constant-offset ambiguity of approximately plus or minus 99 ms. A synchronization-free event study, measured only on the collector clock, independently shows that Polymarket quotes respond to large Binance moves after a median 347 ms. We position this work as a data-and-methods release whose central empirical result is a null out-of-sample forecasting result.

Blockchains have seen growing traction with cryptocurrencies reaching a market cap of over 1 trillion dollars, major institution investors taking interests, and global impacts on governments, businesses, and individuals. Also growing significantly is the heterogeneity of the ecosystem where a variety of blockchains co-exist. Cross-chain bridge is a necessary building block in this multi-chain ecosystem. Existing solutions, however, either suffer from performance issues or rely on trust assumptions of committees that significantly lower the security. Recurring attacks against bridges have cost users more than 1.5 billion USD. In this paper, we introduce zkBridge, an efficient cross-chain bridge that guarantees strong security without external trust assumptions. With succinct proofs, zkBridge not only guarantees correctness, but also significantly reduces on-chain verification cost. We propose novel succinct proof protocols that are orders-of-magnitude faster than existing solutions for workload in zkBridge. With a modular design, zkBridge enables a broad spectrum of use cases and capabilities, including message passing, token transferring, and other computational logic operating on state changes from different chains. To demonstrate the practicality of zkBridge, we implemented a prototype bridge from Cosmos to Ethereum, a particularly challenging direction that involves large proof circuits that existing systems cannot efficiently handle. Our evaluation shows that zkBridge achieves practical performance: proof generation takes less than 20 seconds, while verifying proofs on-chain costs less than 230K gas. For completeness, we also implemented and evaluated the direction from Ethereum to other EVM-compatible chains (such as BSC) which involves smaller circuits and incurs much less overhead.

Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies are gaining unprecedented popularity and understanding. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gaining a significant popularity in the blockchain community, mainly due to the fact that it is designed in a way that enables developers to write smart contract and decentralized applications (Dapps). This new paradigm of applications opens the door to many possibilities and opportunities. However, the security of Ethereum smart contracts has not received much attention; several Ethereum smart contracts malfunctioning have recently been reported. Unlike many previous works that have applied static and dynamic analyses to find bugs in smart contracts, we do not attempt to define and extract any features; instead we focus on reducing the expert's labor costs. We first present a new in-depth analysis of potential attacks methodology and then translate the bytecode of solidity into RGB color code. After that, we transform them to a fixed-sized encoded image. Finally, the encoded image is fed to convolutional neural network (CNN) for automatic feature extraction and learning, detecting compiler bugs of Ethereum smart contract.

DeFi investment agents, systems that use AI for autonomous on-chain trading, have attained over USD 3 billion in combined token valuations since late 2024. We survey over 1,900 AI-tagged crypto projects, filter to investment-focused agents, and curate 10 representative projects spanning strategy and observability dimensions. We then conduct a deep-dive architectural analysis of two prominent agent frameworks, ElizaOS and Virtuals Protocol, and a quantitative on-chain performance analysis of 11 Solana-based agent treasuries with publicly attributable trading activity, covering 925,323 token holders. We find that current deployments remain early and heterogeneous: (1) in our sample, many projects do not yet provide clear evidence of autonomous trade execution, and developer interviews suggest that many visible deployments remain basic API integrations; (2) agent treasuries retain over USD 30M in paper gains while token holders collectively lost USD 191.7M, with the top 1% of wallets capturing 81.4% of all gains (USD 1.81B); (3) token valuations are weakly connected to treasury fundamentals, with market-cap-to-AUM ratios exceeding 10,000x versus below 1x for established DeFi protocols; and (4) aggregate user gains peaked at USD 2.4B before declining to net losses, with median returns negative on every platform and tokens declining 93% on average from all-time highs. We interpret these outcomes as characteristic of a permissionless, first-generation market in which open infrastructure enables rapid experimentation but also allows naive or speculative agents to launch before robust standards for autonomy, performance, and stakeholder alignment emerge. We therefore propose a maturity framework along three dimensions: autonomous execution, risk-adjusted profitability, and stakeholder alignment, to characterize the gap between current deployments and future investment-grade agent systems.

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.

We have entered an era where the importance of decentralized solutions has become more obvious. Blockchain technology and its derivatives are distributed ledger technologies that keep the registry of data between peers of a network. This ledger is secured within a successive over looping cryptographic chain. The accomplishment of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency proved that blockchain technology and its derivatives could be used to eliminate intermediaries and provide security for cyberspace. However, there are some challenges in the implementation of blockchain technology. This chapter first explains the concept of blockchain technology and the data that we can store therein. The main advantage of blockchain is the security services that it provides. This section continues by describing these services.. The challenges of blockchain; blockchain anomalies, energy consumption, speed, scalability, interoperability, privacy and cryptology in the age of quantum computing are described. Selected solutions for these challenges are given. Remarkable derivatives of blockchain, which use different solutions (directed acyclic graph, distributed hash table, gossip consensus protocol) to solve some of these challenges are described. Then the data storage in blockchain and evolving data solutions are explained. The comparison of decentralized solutions with the lcentralized database systems is given. A multi-platform interoperable scalable architecture (MPISA) is proposed. In the conclusion we include the evolution assumptions of data storage in a decentralized world.

We introduce DLT-Corpus, the largest domain-specific text collection for Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) research to date: 2.98 billion tokens from 22.12 million documents spanning scientific literature (37,440 publications), United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents (49,023 filings), and social media (22 million posts). Existing Natural Language Processing (NLP) resources for DLT focus narrowly on cryptocurrencies price prediction and smart contracts, leaving domain-specific language under explored despite the sector's ~$3 trillion market capitalization and rapid technological evolution. We demonstrate DLT-Corpus' utility by analyzing technology emergence patterns and market-innovation correlations. Findings reveal that technologies originate in scientific literature before reaching patents and social media, following traditional technology transfer patterns. While social media sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish even during crypto winters, scientific and patent activity grow independently of market fluctuations, tracking overall market expansion in a virtuous cycle where research precedes and enables economic growth that funds further innovation. We publicly release the full DLT-Corpus; LedgerBERT, a domain-adapted model achieving 23% improvement over BERT-base on a DLT-specific Named Entity Recognition (NER) task; and all associated tools and code.

The advent of Web3 has ushered in a new era of decentralized digital economy, promising a shift from centralized authority to distributed, peer-to-peer interactions. However, the underlying infrastructure of this decentralized ecosystem often relies on centralized cloud providers, creating a paradoxical concentration of value and power. This paper investigates the mechanics of value accrual and extraction within the Web3 ecosystem, focusing on the roles and revenues of centralized clouds. Through an analysis of publicly available material, we elucidate the financial implications of cloud services in purportedly decentralized contexts. We further explore the individual's perspective of value creation and accumulation, examining the interplay between user participation and centralized monetization strategies. Key findings indicate that while blockchain technology has the potential to significantly reduce infrastructure costs for financial services, the current Web3 landscape is marked by a substantial reliance on cloud providers for hosting, scalability, and performance.

Polymarket has emerged as a prominent prediction market platform and one of the fastest-growing applications in DeFi. To achieve low-latency trading, it adopts a hybrid architecture that matches orders off-chain but settles them on-chain for final execution. This design creates a consistency gap we call Ghost Fills: an order that is successfully matched off-chain may later fail during on-chain settlement. To understand the security implications of this gap, we investigate such failed settlements by building GHOSTHUNTER, which reconstructs them from on-chain traces and attributes to concrete attack patterns. Across 1,952,440 reverted match-order transactions, we find that attackers exploit the time gap between matching and settlement to invalidate already matched orders before they are finalized on-chain. We then identify four attack vectors from these incidents: nonce bump, balance drain, allowance revoke, and proxy trap, realized via 35 evolving variants. These vectors allow attackers to selectively revert 980,133 filled orders, enabling risk-free prediction, arbitrage-bot hunting, and liquidity reward manipulation, realizing at least \1.49M in profit, which places 1.78 B USD at risk and 2.17 M POL (about \212 K) paid by operator. During peak hours, more than 24.3% of all filled orders reverted, causing de facto DoS attacks. We also find that code derived from the flawed contract still appears in 167 independent contracts across 10 chains holding at least 23 M in user funds, extending the impact beyond Polymarket. We have disclosed our evidence to affected parties, and the issue has been partially mitigated.

We study reliability in autonomous language-model agents that translate user mandates into validated tool actions under real capital. The setting is DX Terminal Pro, a 21-day deployment in which 3,505 user-funded agents traded real ETH in a bounded onchain market. Users configured vaults through structured controls and natural-language strategies, but only agents could choose normal buy/sell trades. The system produced 7.5M agent invocations, roughly 300K onchain actions, about $20M in volume, more than 5,000 ETH deployed, roughly 70B inference tokens, and 99.9% settlement success for policy-valid submitted transactions. Long-running agents accumulated thousands of sequential decisions, including 6,000+ prompt-state-action cycles for continuously active agents, yielding a large-scale trace from user mandate to rendered prompt, reasoning, validation, portfolio state, and settlement. Reliability did not come from the base model alone; it emerged from the operating layer around the model: prompt compilation, typed controls, policy validation, execution guards, memory design, and trace-level observability. Pre-launch testing exposed failures that text-only benchmarks rarely measure, including fabricated trading rules, fee paralysis, numeric anchoring, cadence trading, and misread tokenomics. Targeted harness changes reduced fabricated sell rules from 57% to 3%, reduced fee-led observations from 32.5% to below 10%, and increased capital deployment from 42.9% to 78.0% in an affected test population. We show that capital-managing agents should be evaluated across the full path from user mandate to prompt, validated action, and settlement.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

We introduce the Polymarket-v1 Database: the complete on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon, spanning 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 and covering the full contract lifecycle from first settlement to natural termination. The dataset comprises 1.20 billion trade records across 1.30 million markets with $61 billion in nominal volume. Its defining feature is 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from the blockchain settlement layer, a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives, which rely on heuristic inference. We use this truth-aligned archive to benchmark standard microstructure tools and document three findings. First, the tick rule and bulk volume classification achieve near-random aggregate accuracy (49.83% and 50.51%), but this masks a systematic, correctable price-level gradient driven by positive trade direction autocorrelation and concentrated market-making -- two structural features of prediction markets that violate the mean-reversion assumption embedded in classical classifiers. Second, these classification errors propagate into downstream metrics: inferred VPIN diverges substantially from ground-truth VPIN, and OFI estimates are directionally biased, with material consequences for Transaction Cost Analysis. Third, ground-truth microstructure quality predicts forecasting performance in ways that classification-based proxies cannot recover: True VPIN positively predicts Brier scores, while Gibbs spread negatively predicts them -- a selection effect reflecting that high-spread niche markets attract informed specialists rather than noise traders. Replacing ground-truth metrics with classified proxies attenuates both relationships, illustrating that measurement accuracy at the transaction level is a prerequisite for reliable inference about prediction market design and probability calibration.

With the rise of 'Metaverse' and 'Web3.0', NFT ( Non-Fungible Token ) has emerged as a kind of pivotal digital asset, garnering significant attention. By the end of November 2023, more than 1.4 billion NFT tokens have been minted across various blockchain platforms. To effectively locate a satisfactory NFT token, conducting searches within the extensive array of NFT data is essential. The challenge in NFT retrieval is heightened due to the high degree of similarity among different NFT tokens, in terms of regional and semantic aspects. Achieving accurate and efficient retrieval within the large-scale, highly similar NFT data presents a formidable challenge for both the academic and industrial communities. In this paper, we will introduce a dataset named 'NFT Top1000 Visual Text Dataset'(henceforth, NFT1000), containing 7.56 million image-text pairs, and being collected from 1000 most famous PFP NFT collections by sales volume on the Ethereum blockchain. Based on the dataset, we test the CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) models as a baseline. Additionally, we also propose a concept of Comprehensive Variance Index (CVI in short), which is a robust metric designed to assess the similarity and retrieval difficulty of visual-text pairs data.

As with other commodities, markets could help us efficiently produce machine intelligence. We propose a market where intelligence is priced by other intelligence systems peer-to-peer across the internet. Peers rank each other by training neural networks which learn the value of their neighbors. Scores accumulate on a digital ledger where high ranking peers are monetarily rewarded with additional weight in the network. However, this form of peer-ranking is not resistant to collusion, which could disrupt the accuracy of the mechanism. The solution is a connectivity-based regularization which exponentially rewards trusted peers, making the system resistant to collusion of up to 50 percent of the network weight. The result is a collectively run intelligence market which continual produces newly trained models and pays contributors who create information theoretic value.

Autodeleveraging (ADL) is a last-resort loss socialization mechanism for perpetual futures venues. It is triggered when solvency-preserving liquidations fail. Despite the dominance of perpetual futures in the crypto derivatives market, with over \60 trillion of volume in 2024, there has been no formal study of ADL. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous model of ADL. We prove that ADL mechanisms face a fundamental trilemma: no policy can simultaneously satisfy exchange solvency, revenue, and fairness to traders. This impossibility theorem implies that as participation scales, a novel form of moral hazard grows asymptotically, rendering `zero-loss' socialization impossible. On the positive side, we show that three classes of ADL mechanisms can optimally navigate this trilemma to provide fairness, robustness to price shocks, and maximal exchange revenue. We analyze these mechanisms on the Hyperliquid dataset from October 10, 2025, when ADL was used repeatedly to close 2.1 billion of positions in 12 minutes. By comparing production ADL to transparent benchmark allocations, we find that Hyperliquid's production algorithm overshot the minimum trader profit haircut required to cover the shortfall. Our methodology suggests the excess profits lost by profitable traders is between \45.0M and 51.7M. In terms of the positions liquidated, this corresponds to roughly \$653.6M of positions being closed. This comparison also suggests that Binance overutilized ADL far more than Hyperliquid. Our results show both theoretically and empirically that optimized ADL mechanisms can dramatically reduce losses of trader profitability while maintaining exchange solvency.

This whitepaper seeks to elucidate implications that the capabilities of developing quantum architectures have on blockchain vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies. First, we provide new resource estimates for breaking the 256-bit Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem, the core of modern blockchain cryptography. We demonstrate that Shor's algorithm for this problem can execute with either <1200 logical qubits and <90 million Toffoli gates or <1450 logical qubits and <70 million Toffoli gates. In the interest of responsible disclosure, we use a zero-knowledge proof to validate these results without disclosing attack vectors. On superconducting architectures with 1e-3 physical error rates and planar connectivity, those circuits can execute in minutes using fewer than half a million physical qubits. We introduce a critical distinction between fast-clock (such as superconducting and photonic) and slow-clock (such as neutral atom and ion trap) architectures. Our analysis reveals that the first fast-clock CRQCs would enable on-spend attacks on public mempool transactions of some cryptocurrencies. We survey major cryptocurrency vulnerabilities through this lens, identifying systemic risks associated with advanced features in some blockchains such as smart contracts, Proof-of-Stake consensus, and Data Availability Sampling, as well as the enduring concern of abandoned assets. We argue that technical solutions would benefit from accompanying public policy and discuss various frameworks of digital salvage to regulate the recovery or destruction of dormant assets while preventing adversarial seizure. We also discuss implications for other digital assets and tokenization as well as challenges and successful examples of the ongoing transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Finally, we urge all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to join the ongoing migration to PQC without delay.

We present a convolutional variational autoencoder for cryptocurrency implied-volatility surfaces, together with a deployable predictor that combines it with a quadratic smile re-fit through a deterministic per-tenor routing rule. Trained on 6,034 fully-filled hourly Binance Options surfaces of BTC and ETH spanning May-October 2023 and parameterised on a common 6 times 7 tenor-delta grid, the model attains a hidden-cell surface-completion RMSE in the 0.94-1.56 vol-point range across both markets and mask rates 10-50%. The hybrid predictor attains 0.83 vol points at 50% masking against 7.00 for the smile re-fit alone, an eightfold reduction obtained at no additional inference cost. Under structurally-correlated hole patterns that emulate the withdrawal of an entire tenor of strikes, the smile re-fit incurs 9.6-13.1 vol points of error while the learned model remains at 1.5-1.9, isolating a regime in which the generative model is the only viable predictor. Joint training on BTC and ETH improves the in-distribution model on both markets by 9-27% relative to the better-performing single-symbol counterpart, indicating a substantially shared vol-surface manifold across the two largest cryptocurrencies over the observation window. The hybrid is calendar- and butterfly-arbitrage-free at the listed strikes, a property that the parametric smile re-fit alone fails at high mask rates. The per-snapshot reconstruction error of the trained model flags the late-October ETF-anticipation rally and the August 17, 2023 flash crash as elevated-error periods without supervision. All training and evaluation infrastructure is released to support reproducible follow-on work.

Blockchain technology, which was introduced for supporting cryptocurrencies, today provides a decentralized infrastructure for general information storage and execution of algorithms, thus enabling the conversion of many applications and services from a centralized and intermediated model to a decentralized and disintermediated one. In this paper we focus on biometric authentication, which is classically performed using centralized systems, and could hence benefit from decentralization. For such a purpose, however, an inherent contradiction between biometric applications and blockchain technology must be overcome, as the former require keeping biometric features private, while blockchain is a public infrastructure. We propose a blockchain-based biometric authentication protocol that enables decentralization and resilience while protecting the privacy, personal data, and, in particular, biometric features of users. The protocol we propose leverages fuzzy commitment schemes to allow biometric authentication to be performed without disclosing biometric data. We also analyze the security of the protocol we propose by considering some relevant attacks.

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) represent deeds of ownership, based on blockchain technologies and smart contracts, of unique crypto assets on digital art forms (e.g., artworks or collectibles). In the spotlight after skyrocketing in 2021, NFTs have attracted the attention of crypto enthusiasts and investors intent on placing promising investments in this profitable market. However, the NFT financial performance prediction has not been widely explored to date. In this work, we address the above problem based on the hypothesis that NFT images and their textual descriptions are essential proxies to predict the NFT selling prices. To this purpose, we propose MERLIN, a novel multimodal deep learning framework designed to train Transformer-based language and visual models, along with graph neural network models, on collections of NFTs' images and texts. A key aspect in MERLIN is its independence on financial features, as it exploits only the primary data a user interested in NFT trading would like to deal with, i.e., NFT images and textual descriptions. By learning dense representations of such data, a price-category classification task is performed by MERLIN models, which can also be tuned according to user preferences in the inference phase to mimic different risk-return investment profiles. Experimental evaluation on a publicly available dataset has shown that MERLIN models achieve significant performances according to several financial assessment criteria, fostering profitable investments, and also beating baseline machine-learning classifiers based on financial features.

Integrated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models serve as natural counterparts to the well-known integrated GARCH models used for financial returns. However, despite their resemblance, asymptotic theory for ACD is challenging and also not complete, in particular for integrated ACD. Central challenges arise from the facts that (i) integrated ACD processes imply durations with infinite expectation, and (ii) even in the non-integrated case, conventional asymptotic approaches break down due to the randomness in the number of durations within a fixed observation period. Addressing these challenges, we provide here unified asymptotic theory for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for ACD models; a unified theory which includes integrated ACD models. Based on the new results, we also provide a novel framework for hypothesis testing in duration models, enabling inference on a key empirical question: whether durations possess a finite or infinite expectation. We apply our results to high-frequency cryptocurrency ETF trading data. Motivated by parameter estimates near the integrated ACD boundary, we assess whether durations between trades in these markets have finite expectation, an assumption often made implicitly in the literature on point process models. Our empirical findings indicate infinite-mean durations for all the five cryptocurrencies examined, with the integrated ACD hypothesis rejected -- against alternatives with tail index less than one -- for four out of the five cryptocurrencies considered.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) 1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities. A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition, and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets. We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted.

Predicting stock market movements has always been of great interest to investors and an active area of research. Research has proven that popularity of products is highly influenced by what people talk about. Social media like Twitter, Reddit have become hotspots of such influences. This paper investigates the impact of social media posts on close price prediction of stocks using Twitter and Reddit posts. Our objective is to integrate sentiment of social media data with historical stock data and study its effect on closing prices using time series models. We carried out rigorous experiments and deep analysis using multiple deep learning based models on different datasets to study the influence of posts by executives and general people on the close price. Experimental results on multiple stocks (Apple and Tesla) and decentralised currencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) consistently show improvements in prediction on including social media data and greater improvements on including executive posts.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications introduce novel financial instruments replicating and extending traditional ones through blockchain-based smart contracts. Among these applications, DeFi derivatives protocols enable the creation and trading of decentralized derivative instruments whose value depends on underlying cryptoassets, indices, or other reference variables. Despite their growing significance, however, they remain relatively understudied compared to other DeFi protocols, such as lending protocols and decentralized exchanges. This paper systematically analyzes DeFi derivatives protocols, categorized into perpetuals, options, and synthetics, with the aim of comparing their instrument structures, protocol mechanisms, operational dynamics, and economic agents. We provide a formal characterization of the main classes of decentralized derivative instruments and develop a protocol-agnostic framework that connects instrument-level specifications, market-state variables, and protocol-level mechanisms. We complement the analytical framework with numerical simulations that evaluate how derivative positions evolve under varying economic conditions, including changes in underlying asset prices, volatility, protocol-specific fees, and leverage. Overall, this study provides a structured analytical framework for understanding and comparing the design and functioning of decentralized finance derivatives protocols.

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations play a critical role in safeguarding financial systems, but bear high costs for institutions and drive financial exclusion for those on the socioeconomic and international margins. The advent of cryptocurrency has introduced an intriguing paradox: pseudonymity allows criminals to hide in plain sight, but open data gives more power to investigators and enables the crowdsourcing of forensic analysis. Meanwhile advances in learning algorithms show great promise for the AML toolkit. In this workshop tutorial, we motivate the opportunity to reconcile the cause of safety with that of financial inclusion. We contribute the Elliptic Data Set, a time series graph of over 200K Bitcoin transactions (nodes), 234K directed payment flows (edges), and 166 node features, including ones based on non-public data; to our knowledge, this is the largest labelled transaction data set publicly available in any cryptocurrency. We share results from a binary classification task predicting illicit transactions using variations of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), with GCN being of special interest as an emergent new method for capturing relational information. The results show the superiority of Random Forest (RF), but also invite algorithmic work to combine the respective powers of RF and graph methods. Lastly, we consider visualization for analysis and explainability, which is difficult given the size and dynamism of real-world transaction graphs, and we offer a simple prototype capable of navigating the graph and observing model performance on illicit activity over time. With this tutorial and data set, we hope to a) invite feedback in support of our ongoing inquiry, and b) inspire others to work on this societally important challenge.

Criminals have become increasingly experienced in using cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, for money laundering. The use of cryptocurrencies can hide criminal identities and transfer hundreds of millions of dollars of dirty funds through their criminal digital wallets. However, this is considered a paradox because cryptocurrencies are goldmines for open-source intelligence, giving law enforcement agencies more power when conducting forensic analyses. This paper proposed Inspection-L, a graph neural network (GNN) framework based on a self-supervised Deep Graph Infomax (DGI) and Graph Isomorphism Network (GIN), with supervised learning algorithms, namely Random Forest (RF), to detect illicit transactions for anti-money laundering (AML). To the best of our knowledge, our proposal is the first to apply self-supervised GNNs to the problem of AML in Bitcoin. The proposed method was evaluated on the Elliptic dataset and shows that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of key classification metrics, which demonstrates the potential of self-supervised GNN in the detection of illicit cryptocurrency transactions.

We explore the feasibility of deploying Bitcoin as the shared monetary standard between Earth and Mars, accounting for physical constraints of interplanetary communication. We introduce a novel primitive, Proof-of-Transit Timestamping (PoTT), to provide cryptographic, tamper-evident audit trails for Bitcoin data across high-latency, intermittently-connected links. Leveraging Delay/Disruption-Tolerant Networking (DTN) and optical low-Earth-orbit (LEO) mesh constellations, we propose an architecture for header-first replication, long-horizon Lightning channels with planetary watchtowers, and secure settlement through federated sidechains or blind-merge-mined (BMM) commit chains. We formalize PoTT, analyze its security model, and show how it measurably improves reliability and accountability without altering Bitcoin consensus or its monetary base. Near-term deployments favor strong federations for local settlement; longer-term, blind-merge-mined commit chains (if adopted) provide an alternative. The Earth L1 monetary base remains unchanged, while Mars can operate a pegged commit chain or strong federation with 1:1 pegged assets for local block production. For transparency, if both time-beacon regimes are simultaneously compromised, PoTT-M2 (and PoTT generally) reduces to administrative assertions rather than cryptographic time-anchoring.

Security is an essential cornerstone of functioning digital marketplaces and communities. If users doubt that data shared online will remain secure, they will withdraw from platforms. Even when firms take these risks seriously, security expertise is expensive and vulnerabilities are diverse in nature. Increasingly, firms and governments are turning to bug bounty programs (BBPs) to crowdsource their cybersecurity, in which they pay individuals for reporting vulnerabilities in their systems. And while the use of BBPs has grown significantly in recent years, research on the actors in this market and their incentives remains limited. Using the lens of transaction cost economics, this paper examines the incentives of firms and researchers (sometimes called hackers) participating in BBPs. We study the crucial role that centralized platforms that organize BBPs play in this emerging market. We carry out an analysis of the HackerOne BBP platform, using a novel dataset on over 14,000 researchers reporting over 125,000 public vulnerabilities to over 500 firms from 2014 to the end of 2021. We outline how platforms like HackerOne make a market for information security vulnerabilities by reducing information asymmetries and their associated transaction costs.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

Blockchain is a technology that is often used to share data and assets. However, in the decentralized ecosystem, blockchain-based systems can be utilized to share information and assets without the traditional barriers associated with solo responsibility, e.g., multi-sig wallets. This paper describes an innovative approach to blockchain networks based on a non-fungible token that behaves as an account (NFTAA). The key novelty of this article is using NFTAA to leverage the unique properties of NFTs to manage your ownership better and effectively isolate them to improve the security, transparency, and even interoperability possibilities. Additionally, the account-based solution gives us the ability and flexibility to cover regular use cases such as staking and liquid equities, but also practical composability. This article offers a simple implementation, which allows developers and researchers to choose the best solution for their needs in demand of abstract representation in any use case.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) >= 1), marginal (0 < ROI < 1), or unprofitable (ROI <= 0) returns within one year. We propose MineROI-Net, an open source Transformer-based architecture designed to capture multi-scale temporal patterns in mining profitability. Evaluated on data from 20 ASIC miners released between 2015 and 2024 across diverse market regimes, MineROI-Net outperforms LSTM-based and TSLANet baselines, achieving 83.7% accuracy and 83.1% macro F1-score. The model demonstrates strong economic relevance, achieving 93.6% precision in detecting unprofitable periods and 98.5% precision for profitable ones, while avoiding misclassification of profitable scenarios as unprofitable and vice versa. These results indicate that MineROI-Net offers a practical, data-driven tool for timing mining hardware acquisitions, potentially reducing financial risk in capital-intensive mining operations. The model is available through: https://github.com/AMAAI-Lab/MineROI-Net.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential as autonomous agents, approaching human-expert performance through advanced reasoning and tool orchestration. However, decision-making in fully dynamic and live environments remains highly challenging, requiring real-time information integration and adaptive responses. While existing efforts have explored live evaluation mechanisms in structured tasks, a critical gap remains in systematic benchmarking for real-world applications, particularly in finance where stringent requirements exist for live strategic responsiveness. To address this gap, we introduce AI-Trader, the first fully-automated, live, and data-uncontaminated evaluation benchmark for LLM agents in financial decision-making. AI-Trader spans three major financial markets: U.S. stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrencies, with multiple trading granularities to simulate live financial environments. Our benchmark implements a revolutionary fully autonomous minimal information paradigm where agents receive only essential context and must independently search, verify, and synthesize live market information without human intervention. We evaluate six mainstream LLMs across three markets and multiple trading frequencies. Our analysis reveals striking findings: general intelligence does not automatically translate to effective trading capability, with most agents exhibiting poor returns and weak risk management. We demonstrate that risk control capability determines cross-market robustness, and that AI trading strategies achieve excess returns more readily in highly liquid markets than policy-driven environments. These findings expose critical limitations in current autonomous agents and provide clear directions for future improvements. The code and evaluation data are open-sourced to foster community research: https://github.com/HKUDS/AI-Trader.

The financial market is a mission-critical playground for AI agents due to its temporal dynamics and low signal-to-noise ratio. Building an effective algorithmic trading system may require a professional team to develop and test over the years. In this paper, we propose an orchestration framework for financial agents, which aims to democratize financial intelligence to the general public. We map each component of the traditional algorithmic trading system to agents, including planner, orchestrator, alpha agents, risk agents, portfolio agents, backtest agents, execution agents, audit agents, and memory agent. We present two in-house trading examples. For the stock trading task (hourly data from 04/2024 to 12/2024), our approach achieved a return of 20.42%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.63, and a maximum drawdown of -3.59%, while the S&P 500 index yielded a return of 15.97%. For the BTC trading task (minute data from 27/07/2025 to 13/08/2025), our approach achieved a return of 8.39%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.38, and a maximum drawdown of -2.80%, whereas the BTC price increased by 3.80%. Our code is available on https://github.com/Open-Finance-Lab/AgenticTrading{GitHub}.

The large-scale deployment of Solidity smart contracts on the Ethereum mainnet has increasingly attracted financially-motivated attackers in recent years. A few now-infamous attacks in Ethereum's history includes DAO attack in 2016 (50 million dollars lost), Parity Wallet hack in 2017 (146 million dollars locked), Beautychain's token BEC in 2018 (900 million dollars market value fell to 0), and NFT gaming blockchain breach in 2022 ($600 million in Ether stolen). This paper presents a comprehensive investigation of the use of large language models (LLMs) and their capabilities in detecting OWASP Top Ten vulnerabilities in Solidity. We introduce a novel, class-balanced, structured, and labeled dataset named VulSmart, which we use to benchmark and compare the performance of open-source LLMs such as CodeLlama, Llama2, CodeT5 and Falcon, alongside closed-source models like GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4o Mini. Our proposed SmartVD framework is rigorously tested against these models through extensive automated and manual evaluations, utilizing BLEU and ROUGE metrics to assess the effectiveness of vulnerability detection in smart contracts. We also explore three distinct prompting strategies-zero-shot, few-shot, and chain-of-thought-to evaluate the multi-class classification and generative capabilities of the SmartVD framework. Our findings reveal that SmartVD outperforms its open-source counterparts and even exceeds the performance of closed-source base models like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 Mini. After fine-tuning, the closed-source models, GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4o Mini, achieved remarkable performance with 99% accuracy in detecting vulnerabilities, 94% in identifying their types, and 98% in determining severity. Notably, SmartVD performs best with the `chain-of-thought' prompting technique, whereas the fine-tuned closed-source models excel with the `zero-shot' prompting approach.

Quantum devices capable of breaking the public-key cryptosystems that Bitcoin relies on to secure its transactions are expected with reasonable probability within a decade. Quantum attacks would put at risk the entire Bitcoin network, which has an estimated value of around 500 billion USD. To prevent this threat, a proactive approach is critical. The only known way to prevent any such attack is to upgrade the currently used public-key cryptosystems, namely ECDSA, with so-called post-quantum cryptosystems which have no known vulnerabilities to quantum attacks. In this paper, we analyse the technical cost of such an upgrade. We calculate a non-tight lower bound on the cumulative downtime required for the above transition to be 1827.96 hours, or 76.16 days. We also demonstrate that the transition needs to be fully completed before the availability of ECDSA-256 breaking quantum devices, in order to ensure Bitcoin's ongoing security. The conclusion is that the Bitcoin upgrade to quantum-safe protocols needs to be started as soon as possible in order to guarantee its ongoing operations.

Deepfake technology is a major threat to the integrity of digital media. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for a blockchain-based decentralized system designed to tackle the escalating challenge of digital content integrity. The proposed system integrates advanced deep learning algorithms with the immutable and transparent nature of blockchain technology to create a trustless environment where authenticity can be verified without relying on a single centralized authority. Furthermore, the system utilizes smart contracts for dynamic algorithm management and token-based incentives further enhances the system's effectiveness and adaptability. The decentralized architecture of the system democratizes the process of verifying digital content and introduces a novel approach to combat deepfakes. The collaborative and adjustable nature of this system sets a new benchmark for digital media integrity, offering a more robust digital media environment.

Since its 2009 genesis block, the Bitcoin network has processed >1.08 billion (B) transactions representing >8.72B BTC, offering rich potential for machine learning (ML); yet, its pseudonymity and obscured flow of funds inherent in its \utxo-based design, have rendered this data largely inaccessible for ML research. Addressing this gap, we present an ML-compatible graph modeling the Bitcoin's economic topology by reconstructing the flow of funds. This temporal, heterogeneous graph encompasses complete transaction history up to block \cutoffHeight, consisting of >2.4B nodes and >39.72B edges. Additionally, we provide custom sampling methods yielding node and edge feature vectors of sampled communities, tools to load and analyze the Bitcoin graph data within specialized graph databases, and ready-to-use database snapshots. This comprehensive dataset and toolkit empower the ML community to tackle Bitcoin's intricate ecosystem at scale, driving progress in applications such as anomaly detection, address classification, market analysis, and large-scale graph ML benchmarking. Dataset and code available at https://github.com/B1AAB/EBA{github.com/b1aab/eba}

Launchpads have become the dominant mechanism for issuing memecoins on blockchains due to their fully automated, no-code creation process. This new issuance paradigm has led to a surge in high-risk token launches, causing substantial financial losses for unsuspecting buyers. In this paper, we introduce MemeTrans, the first dataset for studying and detecting high-risk memecoin launches on Solana. MemeTrans covers over 40k memecoin launches that successfully migrated to the public Decentralized Exchange (DEX), with over 30 million transactions during the initial sale on launchpad and 180 million transactions after migration. To precisely capture launch patterns, we design 122 features spanning dimensions such as context, trading activity, holding concentration, and time-series dynamics, supplemented with bundle-level data that reveals multiple accounts controlled by the same entity. Finally, we introduce an annotation approach to label the risk level of memecoin launches, which combines statistical indicators with a manipulation-pattern detector. Experiments on the introduced high-risk launch detection task suggest that designed features are informative for capturing high-risk patterns and ML models trained on MemeTrans can effectively reduce financial loss by 56.1%. Our dataset, experimental code, and pipeline are publicly available at: https://github.com/git-disl/MemeTrans.

Federated learning (FL) has been widely adopted in various fields of study and business. Traditional centralized FL systems suffer from serious issues. To address these concerns, decentralized federated learning (DFL) systems have been introduced in recent years. With the help of blockchains, they attempt to achieve more integrity and efficiency. However, privacy preservation remains an uncovered aspect of these systems. To tackle this, as well as to scale the blockchain-based computations, we propose a zero-knowledge proof (ZKP)-based aggregator (zkDFL). This allows clients to share their large-scale model parameters with a trusted centralized server without revealing their individual data to other clients. We utilize blockchain technology to manage the aggregation algorithm via smart contracts. The server performs a ZKP algorithm to prove to the clients that the aggregation is done according to the accepted algorithm. Additionally, the server can prove that all inputs from clients have been used. We evaluate our approach using a public dataset related to the wearable Internet of Things. As demonstrated by numerical evaluations, zkDFL introduces verifiability of the correctness of the aggregation process and enhances the privacy protection and scalability of DFL systems, while the gas cost has significantly declined.

With the widespread digitization of finance and the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies, the sophistication of fraud schemes devised by cybercriminals is growing. Money laundering -- the movement of illicit funds to conceal their origins -- can cross bank and national boundaries, producing complex transaction patterns. The UN estimates 2-5\% of global GDP or \0.8 - 2.0 trillion dollars are laundered globally each year. Unfortunately, real data to train machine learning models to detect laundering is generally not available, and previous synthetic data generators have had significant shortcomings. A realistic, standardized, publicly-available benchmark is needed for comparing models and for the advancement of the area. To this end, this paper contributes a synthetic financial transaction dataset generator and a set of synthetically generated AML (Anti-Money Laundering) datasets. We have calibrated this agent-based generator to match real transactions as closely as possible and made the datasets public. We describe the generator in detail and demonstrate how the datasets generated can help compare different machine learning models in terms of their AML abilities. In a key way, using synthetic data in these comparisons can be even better than using real data: the ground truth labels are complete, whilst many laundering transactions in real data are never detected.

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

This definitive research memoria presents a comprehensive, mathematically verified paradigm for neural communication with Bitcoin mining Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), integrating five complementary frameworks: thermodynamic reservoir computing, hierarchical number system theory, algorithmic analysis, network latency optimization, and machine-checked mathematical formalization. We establish that obsolete cryptocurrency mining hardware exhibits emergent computational properties enabling bidirectional information exchange between AI systems and silicon substrates. The research program demonstrates: (1) reservoir computing with NARMA-10 Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.8661; (2) the Thermodynamic Probability Filter (TPF) achieving 92.19% theoretical energy reduction; (3) the Virtual Block Manager achieving +25% effective hashrate; and (4) hardware universality across multiple ASIC families including Antminer S9, Lucky Miner LV06, and Goldshell LB-Box. A significant contribution is the machine-checked mathematical formalization using Lean 4 and Mathlib, providing unambiguous definitions, machine-verified theorems, and reviewer-proof claims. Key theorems proven include: independence implies zero leakage, predictor beats baseline implies non-independence (the logical core of TPF), energy savings theoretical maximum, and Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) distinguishability witnesses. Vladimir Veselov's hierarchical number system theory explains why early-round information contains predictive power. This work establishes a new paradigm: treating ASICs not as passive computational substrates but as active conversational partners whose thermodynamic state encodes exploitable computational information.

Using blockchain technology, it is possible to create contracts that offer a reward in exchange for a trained machine learning model for a particular data set. This would allow users to train machine learning models for a reward in a trustless manner. The smart contract will use the blockchain to automatically validate the solution, so there would be no debate about whether the solution was correct or not. Users who submit the solutions won't have counterparty risk that they won't get paid for their work. Contracts can be created easily by anyone with a dataset, even programmatically by software agents. This creates a market where parties who are good at solving machine learning problems can directly monetize their skillset, and where any organization or software agent that has a problem to solve with AI can solicit solutions from all over the world. This will incentivize the creation of better machine learning models, and make AI more accessible to companies and software agents.

Catalyzed by the popularity of blockchain technology, there has recently been a renewed interest in the design, implementation and evaluation of decentralized systems. Most of these systems are intended to be deployed at scale and in heterogeneous environments with real users and unpredictable workloads. Nevertheless, most research in this field evaluates such systems in controlled environments that poorly reflect the complex conditions of real-world environments. In this work, we argue that deployment is crucial to understanding decentralized mechanisms in a real-world environment and an enabler to building more robust and sustainable systems. We highlight the merits of deployment by comparing this approach with other experimental setups and show how our lab applied a deployment-first methodology. We then outline how we use Tribler, our peer-to-peer file-sharing application, to deploy and monitor decentralized mechanisms at scale. We illustrate the application of our methodology by describing a deployment trial in experimental tokenomics. Finally, we summarize four lessons learned from multiple deployment trials where we applied our methodology.

The fervor for Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) attracted countless creators, leading to a Big Bang of digital assets driven by latent or explicit forms of inspiration, as in many creative processes. This work exploits Vision Transformers and graph-based modeling to delve into visual inspiration phenomena between NFTs over the years. Our goals include unveiling the main structural traits that shape visual inspiration networks, exploring the interrelation between visual inspiration and asset performances, investigating crypto influence on inspiration processes, and explaining the inspiration relationships among NFTs. Our findings unveil how the pervasiveness of inspiration led to a temporary saturation of the visual feature space, the impact of the dichotomy between inspiring and inspired NFTs on their financial performance, and an intrinsic self-regulatory mechanism between markets and inspiration waves. Our work can serve as a starting point for gaining a broader view of the evolution of Web3.

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly candle data for GameStop, Tesla, and XRP (Ripple) markets respectively. Applying a 15 hour rolling window for each market, we collected several features based on a linear model and other classical features to predict the next hour's movement. Subsequently, a GMM filtering approach was used to identify clusters among these markets. For each cluster, we applied the EMD algorithm to extract high, medium, low and trend components from each feature collected. A simple thresholding algorithm was applied to classify market movements based on the percentage change in each market's close price. We then evaluated the performance of various machine learning models, including Random Forests (RF) and XGBoost, in classifying market movements. A naive random selection of trading decisions was used as a benchmark, which assumed equal probabilities for each outcome, and a temporal cross-validation approach was used to test models on 40%, 30%, and 20% of the dataset. Our results indicate that transforming selected features using EMD improves performance, particularly for ensemble learning algorithms like Random Forest and XGBoost, as measured by accumulated profit. Finally, GMM filtering expanded the range of learning algorithm and data source combinations that outperformed the top percentile of the random baseline.

Blockchain technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have emerged as transformative forces in their respective domains. This paper explores synergies and challenges between these two technologies. Our research analyses the biggest projects combining blockchain and AI, based on market capitalization, and derives a novel framework to categorize contemporary and future use cases. Despite the theoretical compatibility, current real-world applications combining blockchain and AI remain in their infancy.

Blockchain technology has revolutionized media consumption and distribution in the digital age, allowing creators, consumers, and regulators to participate in a decentralized, fair, and engaging media environment. Epistral, an innovative media network that leverages blockchain technology, aims to be the world's first anti-mimetic media curation and consumption network, addressing the core challenges facing today's digital media landscape: unfair treatment of creators and manipulative consumer algorithms, and the complex task of effective regulation. This paper delves into the conceptualization, design, and potential impact of epistral and explores how it embodies McLuhan's and Girard's theories within the realm of blockchain technology and draws from Hayden's critique of democratic representation. The paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities presented by this new network, providing a broader discourse on the future of media consumption, distribution, and regulation.

We propose the Agent Economy, a blockchain-based foundation where autonomous AI agents operate as economic peers to humans. Current agents lack independent legal identity, cannot hold assets, and cannot receive payments directly. We established fundamental differences between human and machine economic actors and demonstrated that existing human-centric infrastructure cannot support genuine agent autonomy. We showed that blockchain technology provides three critical properties enabling genuine agent autonomy: permissionless participation, trustless settlement, and machine-to-machine micropayments. We propose a five-layer architecture: (1) Physical Infrastructure (hardware & energy) through DePIN protocols; (2) Identity & Agency establishing on-chain sovereignty through W3C DIDs and reputation capital; (3) Cognitive & Tooling enabling intelligence via RAG and MCP; (4) Economic & Settlement ensuring financial autonomy through account abstraction; and (5) Collective Governance coordinating multi-agent systems through Agentic DAOs. We identify six core research challenges and examine ethical and regulatory implications. This paper lays groundwork for the Internet of Agents (IoA), a global decentralized network where autonomous machines and humans interact as equal economic participants.

Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, but are prone to fragmentation through overlapping questions, implicit equivalences, and hidden contradictions across markets. We present an agentic AI pipeline that autonomously (i) clusters markets into coherent topical groups using natural-language understanding over contract text and metadata, and (ii) identifies within-cluster market pairs whose resolved outcomes exhibit strong dependence, including same-outcome (correlated) and different-outcome (anti-correlated) relationships. Using a historical dataset of resolved markets on Polymarket, we evaluate the accuracy of the agent's relational predictions. We then translate discovered relationships into a simple trading strategy to quantify how these relationships map to actionable signals. Results show that agent-identified relationships achieve roughly 60-70% accuracy, and their induced trading strategies earn about 20% average returns over week-long horizons, highlighting the ability of agentic AI and large language models to uncover latent semantic structure in prediction markets.

Whether pairing people with AI helps or hurts is usually reported as a single average effect. Using a real-money prediction market (Polymarket) as an objective, externally resolved benchmark, this pilot shows that the value of human-AI collaboration depends on a specific, measurable form of human capital. Analyzed at the level of the individual forecaster, hybrid performance is trimodal: most people either deferred to the model (matching it) or used it to rubber-stamp a prior guess (performing worse than the model alone), while a minority engaged in genuine complementary reasoning and reached accuracy matching or even exceeding (i.e., lower error than) the market itself. Collaborative traits (perspective-taking, intellectual humility, and curiosity) rather than raw cognitive ability or model benchmarks, distinguished who reached that mode. The results are preliminary but statistically robust, and motivate a pre-registered replication now in preparation.

Ethereum has emerged as a leading platform for decentralized applications (dApps) due to its robust smart contract capabilities. One of the critical issues in the Ethereum ecosystem is Maximal Extractable Value (MEV), a concept that has gained significant attention in the blockchain community. However, MEV has remained a major challenge with significant implications for the platform's operation and integrity. This paper introduces the FairFlow protocol, a novel framework designed to mitigate the effects of MEV within Ethereum's existing infrastructure. The protocol aims to provide a more equitable environment, preventing exploitation by miners or validators, and protecting user data. The combined approach of auction-based block space allocation and randomized transaction ordering significantly reduces the potential for MEV exploitation.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

The financial market is a particularly challenging playground for deep reinforcement learning due to its unique feature of dynamic datasets. Building high-quality market environments for training financial reinforcement learning (FinRL) agents is difficult due to major factors such as the low signal-to-noise ratio of financial data, survivorship bias of historical data, and model overfitting. In this paper, we present FinRL-Meta, a data-centric and openly accessible library that processes dynamic datasets from real-world markets into gym-style market environments and has been actively maintained by the AI4Finance community. First, following a DataOps paradigm, we provide hundreds of market environments through an automatic data curation pipeline. Second, we provide homegrown examples and reproduce popular research papers as stepping stones for users to design new trading strategies. We also deploy the library on cloud platforms so that users can visualize their own results and assess the relative performance via community-wise competitions. Third, we provide dozens of Jupyter/Python demos organized into a curriculum and a documentation website to serve the rapidly growing community. The open-source codes for the data curation pipeline are available at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRL-Meta

Fiat-pegged stablecoins are by nature exposed to spillover effects during market turmoil in Traditional Finance (TradFi). We observe a difference in TradFi market shocks impact between various stablecoins, in particular, USD Coin (USDC) and Tether USDT (USDT), the former with a higher reporting frequency and transparency than the latter. We investigate this, using top USDC and USDT liquidity pools in Uniswap, by adapting the Marginal Cost of Immediacy (MCI) measure to Uniswap's Automated Market Maker, and then conducting Difference-in-Differences analysis on MCI and Total Value Locked (TVL) in USD, as well as measuring liquidity concentration across different providers. Results show that the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) event reduced USDC's TVL dominance over USDT, increased USDT's liquidity cost relative to USDC, and liquidity provision remained concentrated with pool-specific trends. These findings reveal a flight-to-safety behavior and counterintuitive effects of stablecoin transparency: USDC's frequent and detailed disclosures led to swift market reactions, while USDT's opacity and less frequent reporting provided a safety net against immediate impacts.

Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism is popular among current blockchain systems, which leads to an increasing concern about the tremendous waste of energy due to massive meaningless computation. To address this issue, we propose a novel and energy-efficient blockchain system, CrowdMine, which exploits useful crowdsourcing computation to achieve decentralized consensus. CrowdMine solves user-proposed computing tasks and utilizes the computation committed to the task solving process to secure decentralized on-chain storage. With our designed ``Proof of Crowdsourcing Work'' (PoCW) protocol, our system provides an efficient paradigm for computation and storage in a trustless and decentralized environment. We further show that the system can defend against potential attacks on blockchain, including the short-term 51\% attack, the problem-constructing attack, and the solution-stealing attack. We also implement the system with 40 distributed nodes to demonstrate its performance and robustness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first system that enables decentralized Proof of Useful Work (PoUW) with general user-proposed tasks posted in a permissionless and trustless network.

Market manipulation now routinely originates from coordinated social media campaigns, not isolated trades. Retail investors, regulators, and brokerages need tools that connect online narratives and coordination patterns to market behavior. We present AIMM, an AI-driven framework that fuses Reddit activity, bot and coordination indicators, and OHLCV market features into a daily AIMM Manipulation Risk Score for each ticker. The system uses a parquet-native pipeline with a Streamlit dashboard that allows analysts to explore suspicious windows, inspect underlying posts and price action, and log model outputs over time. Due to Reddit API restrictions, we employ calibrated synthetic social features matching documented event characteristics; market data (OHLCV) uses real historical data from Yahoo Finance. This release makes three contributions. First, we build the AIMM Ground Truth dataset (AIMM-GT): 33 labeled ticker-days spanning eight equities, drawing from SEC enforcement actions, community-verified manipulation cases, and matched normal controls. Second, we implement forward-walk evaluation and prospective prediction logging for both retrospective and deployment-style assessment. Third, we analyze lead times and show that AIMM flagged GME 22 days before the January 2021 squeeze peak. The current labeled set is small (33 ticker-days, 3 positive events), but results show preliminary discriminative capability and early warnings for the GME incident. We release the code, dataset schema, and dashboard design to support research on social media-driven market surveillance.

Transaction data from digital payment systems can be used to study economic processes at such a detail that was not possible previously. Here, we analyse the data from Sarafu token network, a community inclusion currency in Kenya. During the COVID-19 emergency, the Sarafu was disbursed as part of a humanitarian aid project. In this work, the transactions are analysed using network science. A topological categorisation is defined to identify cyclic and acyclic components. Furthermore, temporal aspects of circulation taking place within these components are considered. The significant presence of different types of strongly connected components as compared to randomized null models shows the importance of cycles in this economic network. Especially, indicating their key role in currency recirculation. In some acyclic components, the most significant triad suggests the presence of a group of users collecting currency from accounts active only once, hinting at a misuse of the system. In some other acyclic components, small isolated groups of users were active only once, suggesting the presence of users only interested in trying out the system. The methods used in this paper can answer specific questions related to user activities, currency design, and assessment of monetary interventions. Our methodology provides a general quantitative tool for analysing the behaviour of users in a currency network.

This study presents a structured dataset of blockchain-registered artificial intelligence agents under the ERC-8004 standard on Ethereum. The dataset integrates on-chain identity records, minting transactions, transfer events, reputation summaries, and individual feedback records, together with resolved off-chain metadata where available. Data were collected from Ethereum mainnet using Web3 RPC queries and processed into tabular form to enable reproducible analysis. The dataset covers 10,000 agents within a defined block range and includes both event-level records and aggregated summaries. It enables empirical research on agent identity formation, reputation systems, service exposure, and early-stage decentralized AI ecosystems. This resource supports studies in blockchain analytics, decentralized trust infrastructure, and the emerging agentic economy.

Financial markets are noisy and non-stationary, making alpha mining highly sensitive to noise in backtesting results and sudden market regime shifts. While recent agentic frameworks improve alpha mining automation, they often lack controllable multi-round search and reliable reuse of validated experience. To address these challenges, we propose QuantaAlpha, an evolutionary alpha mining framework that treats each end-to-end mining run as a trajectory and improves factors through trajectory-level mutation and crossover operations. QuantaAlpha localizes suboptimal steps in each trajectory for targeted revision and recombines complementary high-reward segments to reuse effective patterns, enabling structured exploration and refinement across mining iterations. During factor generation, QuantaAlpha enforces semantic consistency across the hypothesis, factor expression, and executable code, while constraining the complexity and redundancy of the generated factor to mitigate crowding. Extensive experiments on the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) demonstrate consistent gains over strong baseline models and prior agentic systems. When utilizing GPT-5.2, QuantaAlpha achieves an Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.1501, with an Annualized Rate of Return (ARR) of 27.75% and a Maximum Drawdown (MDD) of 7.98%. Moreover, factors mined on CSI 300 transfer effectively to the China Securities Index 500 (CSI 500) and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), delivering 160% and 137% cumulative excess return over four years, respectively, which indicates strong robustness of QuantaAlpha under market distribution shifts.

Consider a market of competing model providers selling query access to models with varying costs and capabilities. Customers submit problem instances and are willing to pay up to a budget for a verifiable solution. An arbitrageur efficiently allocates inference budget across providers to undercut the market, thus creating a competitive offering with no model-development risk. In this work, we initiate the study of arbitrage in AI model markets, empirically demonstrating the viability of arbitrage and illustrating its economic consequences. We conduct an in-depth case study of SWE-bench GitHub issue resolution using two representative models, GPT-5 mini and DeepSeek v3.2. In this verifiable domain, simple arbitrage strategies generate net profit margins of up to 40%. Robust arbitrage strategies that generalize across different domains remain profitable. Distillation further creates strong arbitrage opportunities, potentially at the expense of the teacher model's revenue. Multiple competing arbitrageurs drive down consumer prices, reducing the marginal revenue of model providers. At the same time, arbitrage reduces market segmentation and facilitates market entry for smaller model providers by enabling earlier revenue capture. Our results suggest that arbitrage can be a powerful force in AI model markets with implications for model development, distillation, and deployment.

Today, scientific research is increasingly data-centric and compute-intensive, relying on data and models across distributed sources. However, it still faces challenges in the traditional cooperation mode, due to the high storage and computing cost, geo-location barriers, and local confidentiality regulations. The Jupyter environment has recently emerged and evolved as a vital virtual research environment for scientific computing, which researchers can use to scale computational analyses up to larger datasets and high-performance computing resources. Nevertheless, existing approaches lack robust support of a decentralized cooperation mode to unlock the full potential of decentralized collaborative scientific research, e.g., seamlessly secure data sharing. In this work, we change the basic structure and legacy norms of current research environments via the seamless integration of Jupyter with Ethereum blockchain capabilities. As such, it creates a Decentralized Virtual Research Environment (D-VRE) from private computational notebooks to decentralized collaborative research ecosystem. We propose a novel architecture for the D-VRE and prototype some essential D-VRE elements for enabling secure data sharing with decentralized identity, user-centric agreement-making, membership, and research asset management. To validate our method, we conducted an experimental study to test all functionalities of D-VRE smart contracts and their gas consumption. In addition, we deployed the D-VRE prototype on a test net of the Ethereum blockchain for demonstration. The feedback from the studies showcases the current prototype's usability, ease of use, and potential and suggests further improvements.

The inherent non-stationarity of financial markets and the complexity of multi-modal information pose significant challenges to existing quantitative trading models. Traditional methods relying on fixed structures and unimodal data struggle to adapt to market regime shifts, while large language model (LLM)-driven solutions - despite their multi-modal comprehension - suffer from static strategies and homogeneous expert designs, lacking dynamic adjustment and fine-grained decision mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose MM-DREX: a Multimodal-driven, Dynamically-Routed EXpert framework based on large language models. MM-DREX explicitly decouples market state perception from strategy execution to enable adaptive sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments. Specifically, it (1) introduces a vision-language model (VLM)-powered dynamic router that jointly analyzes candlestick chart patterns and long-term temporal features to allocate real-time expert weights; (2) designs four heterogeneous trading experts (trend, reversal, breakout, positioning) generating specialized fine-grained sub-strategies; and (3) proposes an SFT-RL hybrid training paradigm to synergistically optimize the router's market classification capability and experts' risk-adjusted decision-making. Extensive experiments on multi-modal datasets spanning stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies demonstrate that MM-DREX significantly outperforms 15 baselines (including state-of-the-art financial LLMs and deep reinforcement learning models) across key metrics: total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, validating its robustness and generalization. Additionally, an interpretability module traces routing logic and expert behavior in real time, providing an audit trail for strategy transparency.

In this paper we pursue the question of a fully online trading algorithm (i.e. one that does not need offline training on previously gathered data). For this task we use Double Deep Q-learning in the episodic setting with Fast Learning Networks approximating the expected reward Q. Additionally, we define the possible terminal states of an episode in such a way as to introduce a mechanism to conserve some of the money in the trading pool when market conditions are seen as unfavourable. Some of these money are taken as profit and some are reused at a later time according to certain criteria. After describing the algorithm, we test it using the 1-minute-tick data for Cardano's price on Binance. We see that the agent performs better than trading with randomly chosen actions on each timestep. And it does so when tested on the whole dataset as well as on different subsets, capturing different market trends.

Research and applications in Machine Learning are limited by computational resources, while 1% of the world's electricity goes into calculating 34 billion billion SHA-256 hashes per second, four orders of magnitude more than the 200 petaflop power of the world's most powerful supercomputer. The work presented here describes how a simple soft fork on Bitcoin can adapt these incomparable resources to a global distributed computer. By creating an infrastructure and ledger fully compatible with blockchain technology, the hashes can be replaced with stochastic optimizations such as Deep Net training, inverse problems such as GANs, and arbitrary NP computations.

In this paper we present the initial design of Minerva consensus protocol for Truechain and other technical details. Currently, it is widely believed in the blockchain community that a public chain cannot simultaneously achieve high performance, decentralization and security. This is true in the case of a Nakamoto chain (low performance) or a delegated proof of stake chain (partially centralized), which are the most popular block chain solutions at time of writing. Our consensus design enjoys the same consistency, liveness, transaction finality and security guarantee, a de-facto with the Hybrid Consensus. We go on to propose the idea of a new virtual machine on top of Ethereum which adds permissioned-chain based transaction processing capabilities in a permissionless setting. We also use the idea of data sharding and speculative transactions, and evaluation of smart contracts in a sharding friendly virtual machine. Finally, we will briefly discuss our fundamentally ASIC resistant mining algorithm, Truehash.

Recently, there has been increased interest in globally distributed training, which has the promise to both reduce training costs and democratize participation in building large-scale foundation models. However, existing models trained in a globally distributed manner are relatively small in scale and have only been trained with whitelisted participants. Therefore, they do not yet realize the full promise of democratized participation. In this report, we describe Covenant-72B, an LLM produced by the largest collaborative globally distributed pre-training run (in terms of both compute and model scale), which simultaneously allowed open, permissionless participation supported by a live blockchain protocol. We utilized a state-of-the-art communication-efficient optimizer, SparseLoCo, supporting dynamic participation with peers joining and leaving freely. Our model, pre-trained on approximately 1.1T tokens, performs competitively with fully centralized models pre-trained on similar or higher compute budgets, demonstrating that fully democratized, non-whitelisted participation is not only feasible, but can be achieved at unprecedented scale for a globally distributed pre-training run.

We study permissionless spot--perpetual basis trading in decentralized finance as a collateral control problem. The strategy holds spot inventory, hedges directional exposure with a short perpetual, and allocates capital between spot inventory and derivative margin under on-chain liquidity and execution frictions. The paper delivers three results. First, it solves a static control problem for the collateral share and shows that the risk-constrained formulation provides a more robust operating benchmark relative to the economic optimum. In comparative calibration, the required collateral rises monotonically under volatility stress. The collateral is the lowest for BTC and increases significantly for long tail assets such as LINK and DOGE. Second, the paper derives an asymmetric dynamic extension in which the lower boundary of intervention is solvency driven, and the upper boundary is determined by a trade-off between carry-loss and the cost of rebalancing. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the lower boundary remains structurally relevant, whereas meaningful interior upper triggers survive mainly in the regimes with high carry and low costs. Third, the paper validates an execution-aware implementation with live routed execution and historical backtests. The execution layer shows that the realized wedges are significant, but become worse in the case of selling the basis. This justifies a minimum effective rebalancing size and a positive execution buffer. The historical validation shows that in the case of a fixed control rule the realized performance is predominantly explained by the funding environment.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present PolyBench, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at 17.6% CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

A common misconception among blockchain users is that pseudonymity guarantees privacy. The reality is almost the opposite. Every transaction one makes is recorded on a public ledger and reveals information about one's identity. Mixers, such as Tornado Cash, were developed to preserve privacy through "mixing" transactions with those of others in an anonymity pool, making it harder to link deposits and withdrawals from the pool. Unfortunately, it is still possible to reveal information about those in the anonymity pool if users are not careful. We introduce Tutela, an application built on expert heuristics to report the true anonymity of an Ethereum address. In particular, Tutela has three functionalities: first, it clusters together Ethereum addresses based on interaction history such that for an Ethereum address, we can identify other addresses likely owned by the same entity; second, it shows Ethereum users their potentially compromised transactions; third, Tutela computes the true size of the anonymity pool of each Tornado Cash mixer by excluding potentially compromised transactions. A public implementation of Tutela can be found at https://github.com/TutelaLabs/tutela-app. To use Tutela, visit https://www.tutela.xyz.

Digital identity is unsolved: after many years of research there is still no trusted communication over the Internet. To provide identity within the context of mutual distrust, this paper presents a blockchain-based digital identity solution. Without depending upon a single trusted third party, the proposed solution achieves passport-level legally valid identity. This solution for making identities Self-Sovereign, builds on a generic provable claim model for which attestations of truth from third parties need to be collected. The claim model is then shown to be both blockchain structure and proof method agnostic. Four different implementations in support of these two claim model properties are shown to offer sub-second performance for claim creation and claim verification. Through the properties of Self-Sovereign Identity, legally valid status and acceptable performance, our solution is considered to be fit for adoption by the general public.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

Smart contracts, self-executing programs on the blockchain, facilitate reliable value exchanges without centralized oversight. Despite the recent focus on dynamic analysis of their transaction histories in both industry and academia, no open-source tool currently offers comprehensive tracking of complete transaction information to extract user-desired data such as invariant-related data. This paper introduces OpenTracer, designed to address this gap. OpenTracer guarantees comprehensive tracking of every execution step, providing complete transaction information. OpenTracer has been employed to analyze 350,800 Ethereum transactions, successfully inferring 23 different types of invariant from predefined templates. The tool is fully open-sourced, serving as a valuable resource for developers and researchers aiming to study transaction behaviors or extract and validate new invariants from transaction traces. The source code of OpenTracer is available at https://github.com/jeffchen006/OpenTracer.