Daily Papers

Efficient image tokenization with high compression ratios remains a critical challenge for training generative models. We present SoftVQ-VAE, a continuous image tokenizer that leverages soft categorical posteriors to aggregate multiple codewords into each latent token, substantially increasing the representation capacity of the latent space. When applied to Transformer-based architectures, our approach compresses 256x256 and 512x512 images using as few as 32 or 64 1-dimensional tokens. Not only does SoftVQ-VAE show consistent and high-quality reconstruction, more importantly, it also achieves state-of-the-art and significantly faster image generation results across different denoising-based generative models. Remarkably, SoftVQ-VAE improves inference throughput by up to 18x for generating 256x256 images and 55x for 512x512 images while achieving competitive FID scores of 1.78 and 2.21 for SiT-XL. It also improves the training efficiency of the generative models by reducing the number of training iterations by 2.3x while maintaining comparable performance. With its fully-differentiable design and semantic-rich latent space, our experiment demonstrates that SoftVQ-VAE achieves efficient tokenization without compromising generation quality, paving the way for more efficient generative models. Code and model are released.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Categorical variables are a natural choice for representing discrete structure in the world. However, stochastic neural networks rarely use categorical latent variables due to the inability to backpropagate through samples. In this work, we present an efficient gradient estimator that replaces the non-differentiable sample from a categorical distribution with a differentiable sample from a novel Gumbel-Softmax distribution. This distribution has the essential property that it can be smoothly annealed into a categorical distribution. We show that our Gumbel-Softmax estimator outperforms state-of-the-art gradient estimators on structured output prediction and unsupervised generative modeling tasks with categorical latent variables, and enables large speedups on semi-supervised classification.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

We study the problem of posterior sampling using pretrained discrete diffusion foundation models, aiming to recover images from noisy measurements without retraining task-specific models. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling, most advances rely on continuous Gaussian diffusion. In contrast, discrete diffusion offers a unified framework for jointly modeling categorical data such as text and images. Beyond unification, discrete diffusion provides faster inference, finer control, and principled training-free Bayesian inference, making it particularly well-suited for posterior sampling. However, existing approaches to discrete diffusion posterior sampling face severe challenges: derivative-free guidance yields sparse signals, continuous relaxations limit applicability, and split Gibbs samplers suffer from the curse of dimensionality. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Anchored Posterior Sampling (APS) for masked diffusion foundation models, built on two key innovations -- quantized expectation for gradient-like guidance in discrete embedding space, and anchored remasking for adaptive decoding. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance among discrete diffusion samplers across linear and nonlinear inverse problems on the standard benchmarks. We further demonstrate the benefits of our approach in training-free stylization and text-guided editing.

One-hot vectors, a common method for representing discrete/categorical data, in machine learning are widely used because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. However, one-hot vectors suffer from a linear increase in dimensionality, posing computational and memory challenges, especially when dealing with datasets containing numerous categories. In this paper, we focus on tabular data generation, and reveal the multinomial diffusion faces the mode collapse phenomenon when the cardinality is high. Moreover, due to the limitations of one-hot vectors, the training phase takes time longer in such a situation. To address these issues, we propose Residual Bit Vectors (ResBit), a technique for densely representing categorical data. ResBit is an extension of analog bits and overcomes limitations of analog bits when applied to tabular data generation. Our experiments demonstrate that ResBit not only accelerates training but also maintains performance when compared with the situations before applying ResBit. Furthermore, our results indicate that many existing methods struggle with high-cardinality data, underscoring the need for lower-dimensional representations, such as ResBit and latent vectors.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

The distribution of the weights of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) - crucial for uncertainty quantification and robustness - is an eminently complex object due to its extremely high dimensionality. This paper proposes one of the first large-scale explorations of the posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), expanding its study to real-world vision tasks and architectures. Specifically, we investigate the optimal approach for approximating the posterior, analyze the connection between posterior quality and uncertainty quantification, delve into the impact of modes on the posterior, and explore methods for visualizing the posterior. Moreover, we uncover weight-space symmetries as a critical aspect for understanding the posterior. To this extent, we develop an in-depth assessment of the impact of both permutation and scaling symmetries that tend to obfuscate the Bayesian posterior. While the first type of transformation is known for duplicating modes, we explore the relationship between the latter and L2 regularization, challenging previous misconceptions. Finally, to help the community improve our understanding of the Bayesian posterior, we will shortly release the first large-scale checkpoint dataset, including thousands of real-world models and our codes.

We propose a categorical semantics of gradient-based machine learning algorithms in terms of lenses, parametrised maps, and reverse derivative categories. This foundation provides a powerful explanatory and unifying framework: it encompasses a variety of gradient descent algorithms such as ADAM, AdaGrad, and Nesterov momentum, as well as a variety of loss functions such as as MSE and Softmax cross-entropy, shedding new light on their similarities and differences. Our approach to gradient-based learning has examples generalising beyond the familiar continuous domains (modelled in categories of smooth maps) and can be realized in the discrete setting of boolean circuits. Finally, we demonstrate the practical significance of our framework with an implementation in Python.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images have spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a method of performing NPE with spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs. In this method, we generate synthetic catalogs and semi-synthetic images for these catalogs using randomly sampled PSF and background estimates from existing surveys. Using this data, we train a neural network, which takes an astronomical image and representations of its background and PSF as input, to output a probabilistic catalog. Our experiments with Sloan Digital Sky Survey data demonstrate the effectiveness of NPE in the presence of spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs for light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

We introduce a deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks. This yields a sampling-free, single-pass model and loss that effectively improves uncertainty estimation. Our variational Bayesian last layer (VBLL) can be trained and evaluated with only quadratic complexity in last layer width, and is thus (nearly) computationally free to add to standard architectures. We experimentally investigate VBLLs, and show that they improve predictive accuracy, calibration, and out of distribution detection over baselines across both regression and classification. Finally, we investigate combining VBLL layers with variational Bayesian feature learning, yielding a lower variance collapsed variational inference method for Bayesian neural networks.

We propose a method for jointly inferring labels across a collection of data samples, where each sample consists of an observation and a prior belief about the label. By implicitly assuming the existence of a generative model for which a differentiable predictor is the posterior, we derive a training objective that allows learning under weak beliefs. This formulation unifies various machine learning settings; the weak beliefs can come in the form of noisy or incomplete labels, likelihoods given by a different prediction mechanism on auxiliary input, or common-sense priors reflecting knowledge about the structure of the problem at hand. We demonstrate the proposed algorithms on diverse problems: classification with negative training examples, learning from rankings, weakly and self-supervised aerial imagery segmentation, co-segmentation of video frames, and coarsely supervised text classification.

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.

The successes of modern deep machine learning methods are founded on their ability to transform inputs across multiple layers to build good high-level representations. It is therefore critical to understand this process of representation learning. However, standard theoretical approaches (formally NNGPs) involving infinite width limits eliminate representation learning. We therefore develop a new infinite width limit, the Bayesian representation learning limit, that exhibits representation learning mirroring that in finite-width models, yet at the same time, retains some of the simplicity of standard infinite-width limits. In particular, we show that Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in the Bayesian representation learning limit have exactly multivariate Gaussian posteriors, and the posterior covariances can be obtained by optimizing an interpretable objective combining a log-likelihood to improve performance with a series of KL-divergences which keep the posteriors close to the prior. We confirm these results experimentally in wide but finite DGPs. Next, we introduce the possibility of using this limit and objective as a flexible, deep generalisation of kernel methods, that we call deep kernel machines (DKMs). Like most naive kernel methods, DKMs scale cubically in the number of datapoints. We therefore use methods from the Gaussian process inducing point literature to develop a sparse DKM that scales linearly in the number of datapoints. Finally, we extend these approaches to NNs (which have non-Gaussian posteriors) in the Appendices.

We provide a construction for categorical representation learning and introduce the foundations of "categorifier". The central theme in representation learning is the idea of everything to vector. Every object in a dataset S can be represented as a vector in R^n by an encoding map E: Obj(S)toR^n. More importantly, every morphism can be represented as a matrix E: Hom(S)toR^{n}_{n}. The encoding map E is generally modeled by a deep neural network. The goal of representation learning is to design appropriate tasks on the dataset to train the encoding map (assuming that an encoding is optimal if it universally optimizes the performance on various tasks). However, the latter is still a set-theoretic approach. The goal of the current article is to promote the representation learning to a new level via a category-theoretic approach. As a proof of concept, we provide an example of a text translator equipped with our technology, showing that our categorical learning model outperforms the current deep learning models by 17 times. The content of the current article is part of the recent US patent proposal (patent application number: 63110906).

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

3D Reconstruction of moving articulated objects without additional information about object structure is a challenging problem. Current methods overcome such challenges by employing category-specific skeletal models. Consequently, they do not generalize well to articulated objects in the wild. We treat an articulated object as an unknown, semi-rigid skeletal structure surrounded by nonrigid material (e.g., skin). Our method simultaneously estimates the visible (explicit) representation (3D shapes, colors, camera parameters) and the implicit skeletal representation, from motion cues in the object video without 3D supervision. Our implicit representation consists of four parts. (1) Skeleton, which specifies how semi-rigid parts are connected. (2) black{Skinning Weights}, which associates each surface vertex with semi-rigid parts with probability. (3) Rigidity Coefficients, specifying the articulation of the local surface. (4) Time-Varying Transformations, which specify the skeletal motion and surface deformation parameters. We introduce an algorithm that uses physical constraints as regularization terms and iteratively estimates both implicit and explicit representations. Our method is category-agnostic, thus eliminating the need for category-specific skeletons, we show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art across standard video datasets.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Neural implicit representation has attracted attention in 3D reconstruction through various success cases. For further applications such as scene understanding or editing, several works have shown progress towards object compositional reconstruction. Despite their superior performance in observed regions, their performance is still limited in reconstructing objects that are partially observed. To better treat this problem, we introduce category-level neural fields that learn meaningful common 3D information among objects belonging to the same category present in the scene. Our key idea is to subcategorize objects based on their observed shape for better training of the category-level model. Then we take advantage of the neural field to conduct the challenging task of registering partially observed objects by selecting and aligning against representative objects selected by ray-based uncertainty. Experiments on both simulation and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method improves the reconstruction of unobserved parts for several categories.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a practical budget, targeting at the original posterior can lead to suboptimal performance, as some samples may become trapped in "bad" modes and suffer from overfitting. Leveraging the observation that "good" modes with low generalization error often reside in flat basins of the energy landscape, we propose to bias sampling on the posterior toward these flat regions. Specifically, we introduce an auxiliary guiding variable, the stationary distribution of which resembles a smoothed posterior free from sharp modes, to lead the MCMC sampler to flat basins. By integrating this guiding variable with the model parameter, we create a simple joint distribution that enables efficient sampling with minimal computational overhead. We prove the convergence of our method and further show that it converges faster than several existing flatness-aware methods in the strongly convex setting. Empirical results demonstrate that our method can successfully sample from flat basins of the posterior, and outperforms all compared baselines on multiple benchmarks including classification, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.

In recent years, Few-Shot Object Detection (FSOD) has gained widespread attention and made significant progress due to its ability to build models with a good generalization power using extremely limited annotated data. The fine-tuning based paradigm is currently dominating this field, where detectors are initially pre-trained on base classes with sufficient samples and then fine-tuned on novel ones with few samples, but the scarcity of labeled samples of novel classes greatly interferes precisely fitting their data distribution, thus hampering the performance. To address this issue, we propose a new framework for FSOD, namely Prototype-based Soft-labels and Test-Time Learning (PS-TTL). Specifically, we design a Test-Time Learning (TTL) module that employs a mean-teacher network for self-training to discover novel instances from test data, allowing detectors to learn better representations and classifiers for novel classes. Furthermore, we notice that even though relatively low-confidence pseudo-labels exhibit classification confusion, they still tend to recall foreground. We thus develop a Prototype-based Soft-labels (PS) strategy through assessing similarities between low-confidence pseudo-labels and category prototypes as soft-labels to unleash their potential, which substantially mitigates the constraints posed by few-shot samples. Extensive experiments on both the VOC and COCO benchmarks show that PS-TTL achieves the state-of-the-art, highlighting its effectiveness. The code and model are available at https://github.com/gaoyingjay/PS-TTL.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

With infinitely many high-quality data points, infinite computational power, an infinitely large foundation model with a perfect training algorithm and guaranteed zero generalization error on the pretext task, can the model be used for everything? This question cannot be answered by the existing theory of representation, optimization or generalization, because the issues they mainly investigate are assumed to be nonexistent here. In this paper, we show that category theory provides powerful machinery to answer this question. We have proved three results. The first one limits the power of prompt-based learning, saying that the model can solve a downstream task with prompts if and only if the task is representable. The second one says fine tuning does not have this limit, as a foundation model with the minimum required power (up to symmetry) can theoretically solve downstream tasks for the category defined by pretext task, with fine tuning and enough resources. Our final result can be seen as a new type of generalization theorem, showing that the foundation model can generate unseen objects from the target category (e.g., images) using the structural information from the source category (e.g., texts). Along the way, we provide a categorical framework for supervised and self-supervised learning, which might be of independent interest.

Click-based interactive segmentation (IS) aims to extract the target objects under user interaction. For this task, most of the current deep learning (DL)-based methods mainly follow the general pipelines of semantic segmentation. Albeit achieving promising performance, they do not fully and explicitly utilize and propagate the click information, inevitably leading to unsatisfactory segmentation results, even at clicked points. Against this issue, in this paper, we propose to formulate the IS task as a Gaussian process (GP)-based pixel-wise binary classification model on each image. To solve this model, we utilize amortized variational inference to approximate the intractable GP posterior in a data-driven manner and then decouple the approximated GP posterior into double space forms for efficient sampling with linear complexity. Then, we correspondingly construct a GP classification framework, named GPCIS, which is integrated with the deep kernel learning mechanism for more flexibility. The main specificities of the proposed GPCIS lie in: 1) Under the explicit guidance of the derived GP posterior, the information contained in clicks can be finely propagated to the entire image and then boost the segmentation; 2) The accuracy of predictions at clicks has good theoretical support. These merits of GPCIS as well as its good generality and high efficiency are substantiated by comprehensive experiments on several benchmarks, as compared with representative methods both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Detecting test samples drawn sufficiently far away from the training distribution statistically or adversarially is a fundamental requirement for deploying a good classifier in many real-world machine learning applications. However, deep neural networks with the softmax classifier are known to produce highly overconfident posterior distributions even for such abnormal samples. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method for detecting any abnormal samples, which is applicable to any pre-trained softmax neural classifier. We obtain the class conditional Gaussian distributions with respect to (low- and upper-level) features of the deep models under Gaussian discriminant analysis, which result in a confidence score based on the Mahalanobis distance. While most prior methods have been evaluated for detecting either out-of-distribution or adversarial samples, but not both, the proposed method achieves the state-of-the-art performances for both cases in our experiments. Moreover, we found that our proposed method is more robust in harsh cases, e.g., when the training dataset has noisy labels or small number of samples. Finally, we show that the proposed method enjoys broader usage by applying it to class-incremental learning: whenever out-of-distribution samples are detected, our classification rule can incorporate new classes well without further training deep models.

Large language models often produce plausible but incorrect outputs. Existing heuristics such as HallBayes lack formal guarantees. We develop the first comprehensive theory of information-lift certificates under selective classification. Our contributions are: (i) a PAC-Bayes sub-gamma analysis extending beyond standard Bernstein bounds; (ii) explicit skeleton sensitivity theorems quantifying robustness to misspecification; (iii) failure-mode guarantees under assumption violations; and (iv) a principled variational method for skeleton construction. Across six datasets and multiple model families, we validate assumptions empirically, reduce abstention by 12--15\% at the same risk, and maintain runtime overhead below 20\% (further reduced via batching).

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

Generative flows and diffusion models have been predominantly trained on ordinal data, for example natural images. This paper introduces two extensions of flows and diffusion for categorical data such as language or image segmentation: Argmax Flows and Multinomial Diffusion. Argmax Flows are defined by a composition of a continuous distribution (such as a normalizing flow), and an argmax function. To optimize this model, we learn a probabilistic inverse for the argmax that lifts the categorical data to a continuous space. Multinomial Diffusion gradually adds categorical noise in a diffusion process, for which the generative denoising process is learned. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing dequantization approaches on text modelling and modelling on image segmentation maps in log-likelihood.

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures and convolutional or local connections between layers. Equipped with tensorized truncated variational inference, our LGMs can be efficiently trained via backpropagation on mainstream deep learning frameworks such as PyTorch. To deal with continuous valued inputs, we use a simple yet effective soft-clamping strategy for efficient inference. Through extensive experiments on image classification over MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets, we demonstrate that LGMs are capable of achieving competitive results comparable to NNs of similar architectures, while preserving transparent probabilistic modeling.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses of Large Language Models~(LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization~(TFB), a novel framework that transforms existing off-the-shelf trained LoRA adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFB systematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to variational inference for the weights. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex training procedures. Code will be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/bayesian-peft.

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterize different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analysing dimensionality reduction algorithms. We demonstrate that minimizing the expected posterior entropy (EPE) under the prior predictive distribution of the model subsumes many existing methods. They are equivalent to or are special or limiting cases of minimizing the EPE. We offer a unifying framework for obtaining informative summaries, provide concrete recommendations for practitioners, and propose a practical method to obtain high-fidelity summaries whose utility we demonstrate for both benchmark and practical examples.

Semantic segmentation usually suffers from a long-tail data distribution. Due to the imbalanced number of samples across categories, the features of those tail classes may get squeezed into a narrow area in the feature space. Towards a balanced feature distribution, we introduce category-wise variation into the network predictions in the training phase such that an instance is no longer projected to a feature point, but a small region instead. Such a perturbation is highly dependent on the category scale, which appears as assigning smaller variation to head classes and larger variation to tail classes. In this way, we manage to close the gap between the feature areas of different categories, resulting in a more balanced representation. It is noteworthy that the introduced variation is discarded at the inference stage to facilitate a confident prediction. Although with an embarrassingly simple implementation, our method manifests itself in strong generalizability to various datasets and task settings. Extensive experiments suggest that our plug-in design lends itself well to a range of state-of-the-art approaches and boosts the performance on top of them.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

Semantic segmentation has made significant progress in recent years thanks to deep neural networks, but the common objective of generating a single segmentation output that accurately matches the image's content may not be suitable for safety-critical domains such as medical diagnostics and autonomous driving. Instead, multiple possible correct segmentation maps may be required to reflect the true distribution of annotation maps. In this context, stochastic semantic segmentation methods must learn to predict conditional distributions of labels given the image, but this is challenging due to the typically multimodal distributions, high-dimensional output spaces, and limited annotation data. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional categorical diffusion model (CCDM) for semantic segmentation based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. Our model is conditioned to the input image, enabling it to generate multiple segmentation label maps that account for the aleatoric uncertainty arising from divergent ground truth annotations. Our experimental results show that CCDM achieves state-of-the-art performance on LIDC, a stochastic semantic segmentation dataset, and outperforms established baselines on the classical segmentation dataset Cityscapes.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) require scalable sampling algorithms to approximate posterior distributions over parameters. Existing stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) methods are highly sensitive to the choice of stepsize and adaptive variants such as pSGLD typically fail to sample the correct invariant measure without addition of a costly divergence correction term. In this work, we build on the recently proposed `SamAdams' framework for timestep adaptation (Leimkuhler, Lohmann, and Whalley 2025), introducing an adaptive scheme: SA-SGLD, which employs time rescaling to modulate the stepsize according to a monitored quantity (typically the local gradient norm). SA-SGLD can automatically shrink stepsizes in regions of high curvature and expand them in flatter regions, improving both stability and mixing without introducing bias. We show that our method can achieve more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD on high-curvature 2D toy examples and in image classification with BNNs using sharp priors.

In this paper, we address the problem of generalized category discovery (GCD), \ie, given a set of images where part of them are labelled and the rest are not, the task is to automatically cluster the images in the unlabelled data, leveraging the information from the labelled data, while the unlabelled data contain images from the labelled classes and also new ones. GCD is similar to semi-supervised learning (SSL) but is more realistic and challenging, as SSL assumes all the unlabelled images are from the same classes as the labelled ones. We also do not assume the class number in the unlabelled data is known a-priori, making the GCD problem even harder. To tackle the problem of GCD without knowing the class number, we propose an EM-like framework that alternates between representation learning and class number estimation. We propose a semi-supervised variant of the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with a stochastic splitting and merging mechanism to dynamically determine the prototypes by examining the cluster compactness and separability. With these prototypes, we leverage prototypical contrastive learning for representation learning on the partially labelled data subject to the constraints imposed by the labelled data. Our framework alternates between these two steps until convergence. The cluster assignment for an unlabelled instance can then be retrieved by identifying its nearest prototype. We comprehensively evaluate our framework on both generic image classification datasets and challenging fine-grained object recognition datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Properties such as composability and automatic differentiation made artificial neural networks a pervasive tool in applications. Tackling more challenging problems caused neural networks to progressively become more complex and thus difficult to define from a mathematical perspective. We present a general definition of linear layer arising from a categorical framework based on the notions of integration theory and parametric spans. This definition generalizes and encompasses classical layers (e.g., dense, convolutional), while guaranteeing existence and computability of the layer's derivatives for backpropagation.

Few-shot fine-grained visual classification (FGVC) aims to leverage limited data to enable models to discriminate subtly distinct categories. Recent works mostly finetuned the pre-trained visual language models to achieve performance gain, yet suffering from overfitting and weak generalization. To deal with this, we introduce UniFGVC, a universal training-free framework that reformulates few-shot FGVC as multimodal retrieval. First, we propose the Category-Discriminative Visual Captioner (CDV-Captioner) to exploit the open-world knowledge of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to generate a structured text description that captures the fine-grained attribute features distinguishing closely related classes. CDV-Captioner uses chain-of-thought prompting and visually similar reference images to reduce hallucination and enhance discrimination of generated captions. Using it we can convert each image into an image-description pair, enabling more comprehensive feature representation, and construct the multimodal category templates using few-shot samples for the subsequent retrieval pipeline. Then, off-the-shelf vision and text encoders embed query and template pairs, and FGVC is accomplished by retrieving the nearest template in the joint space. UniFGVC ensures broad compatibility with diverse MLLMs and encoders, offering reliable generalization and adaptability across few-shot FGVC scenarios. Extensive experiments on 12 FGVC benchmarks demonstrate its consistent superiority over prior few-shot CLIP-based methods and even several fully-supervised MLLMs-based approaches.

Markov categories are a novel framework to describe and treat problems in probability and information theory. In this work we combine the categorical formalism with the traditional quantitative notions of entropy, mutual information, and data processing inequalities. We show that several quantitative aspects of information theory can be captured by an enriched version of Markov categories, where the spaces of morphisms are equipped with a divergence or even a metric. As it is customary in information theory, mutual information can be defined as a measure of how far a joint source is from displaying independence of its components. More strikingly, Markov categories give a notion of determinism for sources and channels, and we can define entropy exactly by measuring how far a source or channel is from being deterministic. This recovers Shannon and R\'enyi entropies, as well as the Gini-Simpson index used in ecology to quantify diversity, and it can be used to give a conceptual definition of generalized entropy.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

Object categories are typically organized into a multi-granularity taxonomic hierarchy. When classifying categories at different hierarchy levels, traditional uni-modal approaches focus primarily on image features, revealing limitations in complex scenarios. Recent studies integrating Vision-Language Models (VLMs) with class hierarchies have shown promise, yet they fall short of fully exploiting the hierarchical relationships. These efforts are constrained by their inability to perform effectively across varied granularity of categories. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel framework (HGCLIP) that effectively combines CLIP with a deeper exploitation of the Hierarchical class structure via Graph representation learning. We explore constructing the class hierarchy into a graph, with its nodes representing the textual or image features of each category. After passing through a graph encoder, the textual features incorporate hierarchical structure information, while the image features emphasize class-aware features derived from prototypes through the attention mechanism. Our approach demonstrates significant improvements on 11 diverse visual recognition benchmarks. Our codes are fully available at https://github.com/richard-peng-xia/HGCLIP.

Statistical shape modeling (SSM) enables population-based quantitative analysis of anatomical shapes, informing clinical diagnosis. Deep learning approaches predict correspondence-based SSM directly from unsegmented 3D images but require calibrated uncertainty quantification, motivating Bayesian formulations. Variational information bottleneck DeepSSM (VIB-DeepSSM) is an effective, principled framework for predicting probabilistic shapes of anatomy from images with aleatoric uncertainty quantification. However, VIB is only half-Bayesian and lacks epistemic uncertainty inference. We derive a fully Bayesian VIB formulation and demonstrate the efficacy of two scalable implementation approaches: concrete dropout and batch ensemble. Additionally, we introduce a novel combination of the two that further enhances uncertainty calibration via multimodal marginalization. Experiments on synthetic shapes and left atrium data demonstrate that the fully Bayesian VIB network predicts SSM from images with improved uncertainty reasoning without sacrificing accuracy.

Correctly dealing with categorical data in a supervised learning context is still a major issue. Furthermore, though some machine learning methods embody builtin methods to deal with categorical features, it is unclear whether they bring some improvements and how do they compare with usual categorical encoding methods. In this paper, we describe several well-known categorical encoding methods that are based on target statistics and weight of evidence. We apply them on a large and real credit card fraud detection database. Then, we train the encoded databases using state-of-the-art gradient boosting methods and evaluate their performances. We show that categorical encoding methods generally bring substantial improvements with respect to the absence of encoding. The contribution of this work is twofold: (1) we compare many state-of-the-art "lite" categorical encoding methods on a large scale database and (2) we use a real credit card fraud detection database.

Categorical encoders transform categorical features into numerical representations that are indispensable for a wide range of machine learning models. Existing encoder benchmark studies lack generalizability because of their limited choice of (1) encoders, (2) experimental factors, and (3) datasets. Additionally, inconsistencies arise from the adoption of varying aggregation strategies. This paper is the most comprehensive benchmark of categorical encoders to date, including an extensive evaluation of 32 configurations of encoders from diverse families, with 36 combinations of experimental factors, and on 50 datasets. The study shows the profound influence of dataset selection, experimental factors, and aggregation strategies on the benchmark's conclusions -- aspects disregarded in previous encoder benchmarks.

We present a formulation of flow matching as variational inference, which we refer to as variational flow matching (VFM). Based on this formulation we develop CatFlow, a flow matching method for categorical data. CatFlow is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and achieves strong results on graph generation tasks. In VFM, the objective is to approximate the posterior probability path, which is a distribution over possible end points of a trajectory. We show that VFM admits both the CatFlow objective and the original flow matching objective as special cases. We also relate VFM to score-based models, in which the dynamics are stochastic rather than deterministic, and derive a bound on the model likelihood based on a reweighted VFM objective. We evaluate CatFlow on one abstract graph generation task and two molecular generation tasks. In all cases, CatFlow exceeds or matches performance of the current state-of-the-art models.

We present a new loss function for joint disparity and uncertainty estimation in deep stereo matching. Our work is motivated by the need for precise uncertainty estimates and the observation that multi-task learning often leads to improved performance in all tasks. We show that this can be achieved by requiring the distribution of uncertainty to match the distribution of disparity errors via a KL divergence term in the network's loss function. A differentiable soft-histogramming technique is used to approximate the distributions so that they can be used in the loss. We experimentally assess the effectiveness of our approach and observe significant improvements in both disparity and uncertainty prediction on large datasets.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP and SigLIP, have found remarkable success in classification, retrieval, and generative tasks. For this, VLMs deterministically map images and text descriptions to a joint latent space in which their similarity is assessed using the cosine similarity. However, a deterministic mapping of inputs fails to capture uncertainties over concepts arising from domain shifts when used in downstream tasks. In this work, we propose post-hoc uncertainty estimation in VLMs that does not require additional training. Our method leverages a Bayesian posterior approximation over the last layers in VLMs and analytically quantifies uncertainties over cosine similarities. We demonstrate its effectiveness for uncertainty quantification and support set selection in active learning. Compared to baselines, we obtain improved and well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, interpretable uncertainty estimates, and sample-efficient active learning. Our results show promise for safety-critical applications of large-scale models.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have shown remarkable abilities in various visual understanding tasks. However, MLLMs still struggle with fine-grained visual recognition (FGVR), which aims to identify subordinate-level categories from images. This can negatively impact more advanced capabilities of MLLMs, such as object-centric visual question answering and reasoning. In our study, we revisit three quintessential capabilities of MLLMs for FGVR, including object information extraction, category knowledge reserve, object-category alignment, and position of the root cause as a misalignment problem. To address this issue, we present Finedefics, an MLLM that enhances the model's FGVR capability by incorporating informative attribute descriptions of objects into the training phase. We employ contrastive learning on object-attribute pairs and attribute-category pairs simultaneously and use examples from similar but incorrect categories as hard negatives, naturally bringing representations of visual objects and category names closer. Extensive evaluations across multiple popular FGVR datasets demonstrate that Finedefics outperforms existing MLLMs of comparable parameter sizes, showcasing its remarkable efficacy. The code is available at https://github.com/PKU-ICST-MIPL/Finedefics_ICLR2025.

Detecting out-of-distribution inputs for visual recognition models has become critical in safe deep learning. This paper proposes a novel hierarchical visual category modeling scheme to separate out-of-distribution data from in-distribution data through joint representation learning and statistical modeling. We learn a mixture of Gaussian models for each in-distribution category. There are many Gaussian mixture models to model different visual categories. With these Gaussian models, we design an in-distribution score function by aggregating multiple Mahalanobis-based metrics. We don't use any auxiliary outlier data as training samples, which may hurt the generalization ability of out-of-distribution detection algorithms. We split the ImageNet-1k dataset into ten folds randomly. We use one fold as the in-distribution dataset and the others as out-of-distribution datasets to evaluate the proposed method. We also conduct experiments on seven popular benchmarks, including CIFAR, iNaturalist, SUN, Places, Textures, ImageNet-O, and OpenImage-O. Extensive experiments indicate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms clearly. Meanwhile, we find that our visual representation has a competitive performance when compared with features learned by classical methods. These results demonstrate that the proposed method hasn't weakened the discriminative ability of visual recognition models and keeps high efficiency in detecting out-of-distribution samples.

Modern deep learning-based recommendation systems exploit hundreds to thousands of different categorical features, each with millions of different categories ranging from clicks to posts. To respect the natural diversity within the categorical data, embeddings map each category to a unique dense representation within an embedded space. Since each categorical feature could take on as many as tens of millions of different possible categories, the embedding tables form the primary memory bottleneck during both training and inference. We propose a novel approach for reducing the embedding size in an end-to-end fashion by exploiting complementary partitions of the category set to produce a unique embedding vector for each category without explicit definition. By storing multiple smaller embedding tables based on each complementary partition and combining embeddings from each table, we define a unique embedding for each category at smaller memory cost. This approach may be interpreted as using a specific fixed codebook to ensure uniqueness of each category's representation. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over the hashing trick for reducing the size of the embedding tables in terms of model loss and accuracy, while retaining a similar reduction in the number of parameters.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generating images, audio, and video, but their adaptation to text remains challenging due to its discrete nature. Prior approaches either apply Gaussian diffusion in continuous latent spaces, which inherits semantic structure but struggles with token decoding, or operate in categorical simplex space, which respect discreteness but disregard semantic relation between tokens. In this paper, we propose Smoothing Diffusion on Token Embeddings (Smoothie), a novel diffusion method that combines the strengths of both approaches by progressively smoothing token embeddings based on semantic similarity. This technique enables gradual information removal while maintaining a natural decoding process. Experimental results on several sequence-to-sequence generation tasks demonstrate that Smoothie outperforms existing diffusion-based models in generation quality. Furthermore, ablation studies show that our proposed diffusion space yields better performance than both the standard embedding space and the categorical simplex. Our code is available at https://github.com/ashaba1in/smoothie.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Conventional 2D pose estimation models are constrained by their design to specific object categories. This limits their applicability to predefined objects. To overcome these limitations, category-agnostic pose estimation (CAPE) emerged as a solution. CAPE aims to facilitate keypoint localization for diverse object categories using a unified model, which can generalize from minimal annotated support images. Recent CAPE works have produced object poses based on arbitrary keypoint definitions annotated on a user-provided support image. Our work departs from conventional CAPE methods, which require a support image, by adopting a text-based approach instead of the support image. Specifically, we use a pose-graph, where nodes represent keypoints that are described with text. This representation takes advantage of the abstraction of text descriptions and the structure imposed by the graph. Our approach effectively breaks symmetry, preserves structure, and improves occlusion handling. We validate our novel approach using the MP-100 benchmark, a comprehensive dataset spanning over 100 categories and 18,000 images. Under a 1-shot setting, our solution achieves a notable performance boost of 1.07\%, establishing a new state-of-the-art for CAPE. Additionally, we enrich the dataset by providing text description annotations, further enhancing its utility for future research.

Recent advances in Vision Transformers (ViTs) have significantly enhanced medical image segmentation by facilitating the learning of global relationships. However, these methods face a notable challenge in capturing diverse local and global long-range sequential feature representations, particularly evident in whole-body CT (WBCT) scans. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Swin Soft Mixture Transformer (Swin SMT), a novel architecture based on Swin UNETR. This model incorporates a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (Soft MoE) to effectively handle complex and diverse long-range dependencies. The use of Soft MoE allows for scaling up model parameters maintaining a balance between computational complexity and segmentation performance in both training and inference modes. We evaluate Swin SMT on the publicly available TotalSegmentator-V2 dataset, which includes 117 major anatomical structures in WBCT images. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate that Swin SMT outperforms several state-of-the-art methods in 3D anatomical structure segmentation, achieving an average Dice Similarity Coefficient of 85.09%. The code and pre-trained weights of Swin SMT are publicly available at https://github.com/MI2DataLab/SwinSMT.

Diffusion models that are based on iterative denoising have been recently proposed and leveraged in various generation tasks like image generation. Whereas, as a way inherently built for continuous data, existing diffusion models still have some limitations in modeling discrete data, e.g., languages. For example, the generally used Gaussian noise can not handle the discrete corruption well, and the objectives in continuous spaces fail to be stable for textual data in the diffusion process especially when the dimension is high. To alleviate these issues, we introduce a novel diffusion model for language modeling, Masked-Diffuse LM, with lower training cost and better performances, inspired by linguistic features in languages. Specifically, we design a linguistic-informed forward process which adds corruptions to the text through strategically soft-masking to better noise the textual data. Also, we directly predict the categorical distribution with cross-entropy loss function in every diffusion step to connect the continuous space and discrete space in a more efficient and straightforward way. Through experiments on 5 controlled generation tasks, we demonstrate that our Masked-Diffuse LM can achieve better generation quality than the state-of-the-art diffusion models with better efficiency.

We present a novel application of category theory for deep learning. We show how category theory can be used to understand and work with the linear layer functions of group equivariant neural networks whose layers are some tensor power space of R^{n} for the groups S_n, O(n), Sp(n), and SO(n). By using category theoretic constructions, we build a richer structure that is not seen in the original formulation of these neural networks, leading to new insights. In particular, we outline the development of an algorithm for quickly computing the result of a vector that is passed through an equivariant, linear layer for each group in question. The success of our approach suggests that category theory could be beneficial for other areas of deep learning.

Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) is a learning problem where only aggregate level labels are available for groups of instances, called bags, during training, and the aim is to get the best performance at the instance-level on the test data. This setting arises in domains like advertising and medicine due to privacy considerations. We propose a novel algorithmic framework for this problem that iteratively performs two main steps. For the first step (Pseudo Labeling) in every iteration, we define a Gibbs distribution over binary instance labels that incorporates a) covariate information through the constraint that instances with similar covariates should have similar labels and b) the bag level aggregated label. We then use Belief Propagation (BP) to marginalize the Gibbs distribution to obtain pseudo labels. In the second step (Embedding Refinement), we use the pseudo labels to provide supervision for a learner that yields a better embedding. Further, we iterate on the two steps again by using the second step's embeddings as new covariates for the next iteration. In the final iteration, a classifier is trained using the pseudo labels. Our algorithm displays strong gains against several SOTA baselines (up to 15%) for the LLP Binary Classification problem on various dataset types - tabular and Image. We achieve these improvements with minimal computational overhead above standard supervised learning due to Belief Propagation, for large bag sizes, even for a million samples.

Textual-based prompt learning methods primarily employ multiple learnable soft prompts and hard class tokens in a cascading manner as text inputs, aiming to align image and text (category) spaces for downstream tasks. However, current training is restricted to aligning images with predefined known categories and cannot be associated with unknown categories. In this work, we propose utilizing universal attributes as a bridge to enhance the alignment between images and unknown categories. Specifically, we introduce an Attribute-anchored Textual Prompt learning method for vision-language models, named ATPrompt. This approach expands the learning space of soft prompts from the original one-dimensional category level into the multi-dimensional attribute level by incorporating multiple attribute tokens into the learnable soft prompts. Through this modification, we transform the text prompt from a category-centric form to an attribute-category hybrid form. Additionally, we introduce a straightforward differentiable attribute search method to identify representative and suitable attributes for downstream tasks. As an easy-to-use plug-in technique, ATPrompt can seamlessly replace the existing basic prompt format in textual-based methods, providing general improvements at a negligible computational cost. Extensive experiments across 11 datasets validate the effectiveness of our method. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/zhengli97/ATPrompt.

Real-world data tends to follow a long-tailed distribution, where the class imbalance results in dominance of the head classes during training. In this paper, we propose a frustratingly simple but effective step-wise learning framework to gradually enhance the capability of the model in detecting all categories of long-tailed datasets. Specifically, we build smooth-tail data where the long-tailed distribution of categories decays smoothly to correct the bias towards head classes. We pre-train a model on the whole long-tailed data to preserve discriminability between all categories. We then fine-tune the class-agnostic modules of the pre-trained model on the head class dominant replay data to get a head class expert model with improved decision boundaries from all categories. Finally, we train a unified model on the tail class dominant replay data while transferring knowledge from the head class expert model to ensure accurate detection of all categories. Extensive experiments on long-tailed datasets LVIS v0.5 and LVIS v1.0 demonstrate the superior performance of our method, where we can improve the AP with ResNet-50 backbone from 27.0% to 30.3% AP, and especially for the rare categories from 15.5% to 24.9% AP. Our best model using ResNet-101 backbone can achieve 30.7% AP, which suppresses all existing detectors using the same backbone.

We define the bicategory of Graph Convolutional Neural Networks GCNN_n for an arbitrary graph with n nodes. We show it can be factored through the already existing categorical constructions for deep learning called Para and Lens with the base category set to the CoKleisli category of the product comonad. We prove that there exists an injective-on-objects, faithful 2-functor GCNN_n to Para(CoKl(R^{n times n} times -)). We show that this construction allows us to treat the adjacency matrix of a GCNN as a global parameter instead of a a local, layer-wise one. This gives us a high-level categorical characterisation of a particular kind of inductive bias GCNNs possess. Lastly, we hypothesize about possible generalisations of GCNNs to general message-passing graph neural networks, connections to equivariant learning, and the (lack of) functoriality of activation functions.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Diffusion models are the current state of the art for generating photorealistic images. Controlling the sampling process for constrained image generation tasks such as inpainting, however, remains challenging since exact conditioning on such constraints is intractable. While existing methods use various techniques to approximate the constrained posterior, this paper proposes to exploit the ability of Tractable Probabilistic Models (TPMs) to exactly and efficiently compute the constrained posterior, and to leverage this signal to steer the denoising process of diffusion models. Specifically, this paper adopts a class of expressive TPMs termed Probabilistic Circuits (PCs). Building upon prior advances, we further scale up PCs and make them capable of guiding the image generation process of diffusion models. Empirical results suggest that our approach can consistently improve the overall quality and semantic coherence of inpainted images across three natural image datasets (i.e., CelebA-HQ, ImageNet, and LSUN) with only ~10% additional computational overhead brought by the TPM. Further, with the help of an image encoder and decoder, our method can readily accept semantic constraints on specific regions of the image, which opens up the potential for more controlled image generation tasks. In addition to proposing a new framework for constrained image generation, this paper highlights the benefit of more tractable models and motivates the development of expressive TPMs.

We present a method to integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) and traditional tabular data classification techniques, addressing LLMs challenges like data serialization sensitivity and biases. We introduce two strategies utilizing LLMs for ranking categorical variables and generating priors on correlations between continuous variables and targets, enhancing performance in few-shot scenarios. We focus on Logistic Regression, introducing MonotonicLR that employs a non-linear monotonic function for mapping ordinals to cardinals while preserving LLM-determined orders. Validation against baseline models reveals the superior performance of our approach, especially in low-data scenarios, while remaining interpretable.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Understanding how semantic meaning is encoded in the representation spaces of large language models is a fundamental problem in interpretability. In this paper, we study the two foundational questions in this area. First, how are categorical concepts, such as {'mammal', 'bird', 'reptile', 'fish'}, represented? Second, how are hierarchical relations between concepts encoded? For example, how is the fact that 'dog' is a kind of 'mammal' encoded? We show how to extend the linear representation hypothesis to answer these questions. We find a remarkably simple structure: simple categorical concepts are represented as simplices, hierarchically related concepts are orthogonal in a sense we make precise, and (in consequence) complex concepts are represented as polytopes constructed from direct sums of simplices, reflecting the hierarchical structure. We validate these theoretical results on the Gemma large language model, estimating representations for 957 hierarchically related concepts using data from WordNet.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to identify a mix of known and novel categories within unlabeled data sets, providing a more realistic setting for image recognition. Essentially, GCD needs to remember existing patterns thoroughly to recognize novel categories. Recent state-of-the-art method SimGCD transfers the knowledge from known-class data to the learning of novel classes through debiased learning. However, some patterns are catastrophically forgot during adaptation and thus lead to poor performance in novel categories classification. To address this issue, we propose a novel learning approach, LegoGCD, which is seamlessly integrated into previous methods to enhance the discrimination of novel classes while maintaining performance on previously encountered known classes. Specifically, we design two types of techniques termed as Local Entropy Regularization (LER) and Dual-views Kullback Leibler divergence constraint (DKL). The LER optimizes the distribution of potential known class samples in unlabeled data, thus ensuring the preservation of knowledge related to known categories while learning novel classes. Meanwhile, DKL introduces Kullback Leibler divergence to encourage the model to produce a similar prediction distribution of two view samples from the same image. In this way, it successfully avoids mismatched prediction and generates more reliable potential known class samples simultaneously. Extensive experiments validate that the proposed LegoGCD effectively addresses the known category forgetting issue across all datasets, eg, delivering a 7.74% and 2.51% accuracy boost on known and novel classes in CUB, respectively. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Cliffia123/LegoGCD.

Addressing imbalanced or long-tailed data is a major challenge in visual recognition tasks due to disparities between training and testing distributions and issues with data noise. We propose the Wrapped Cauchy Distributed Angular Softmax (WCDAS), a novel softmax function that incorporates data-wise Gaussian-based kernels into the angular correlation between feature representations and classifier weights, effectively mitigating noise and sparse sampling concerns. The class-wise distribution of angular representation becomes a sum of these kernels. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the wrapped Cauchy distribution excels the Gaussian distribution in approximating mixed distributions. Additionally, WCDAS uses trainable concentration parameters to dynamically adjust the compactness and margin of each class. Empirical results confirm label-aware behavior in these parameters and demonstrate WCDAS's superiority over other state-of-the-art softmax-based methods in handling long-tailed visual recognition across multiple benchmark datasets. The code is public available.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) is an intriguing open-world problem that has garnered increasing attention. Given a dataset that includes both labelled and unlabelled images, GCD aims to categorize all images in the unlabelled subset, regardless of whether they belong to known or unknown classes. In GCD, the common practice typically involves applying a spherical projection operator at the end of the self-supervised pretrained backbone, operating within Euclidean or spherical space. However, both of these spaces have been shown to be suboptimal for encoding samples that possesses hierarchical structures. In contrast, hyperbolic space exhibits exponential volume growth relative to radius, making it inherently strong at capturing the hierarchical structure of samples from both seen and unseen categories. Therefore, we propose to tackle the category discovery challenge in the hyperbolic space. We introduce HypCD, a simple Hyperbolic framework for learning hierarchy-aware representations and classifiers for generalized Category Discovery. HypCD first transforms the Euclidean embedding space of the backbone network into hyperbolic space, facilitating subsequent representation and classification learning by considering both hyperbolic distance and the angle between samples. This approach is particularly helpful for knowledge transfer from known to unknown categories in GCD. We thoroughly evaluate HypCD on public GCD benchmarks, by applying it to various baseline and state-of-the-art methods, consistently achieving significant improvements.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

Data used for analytics and machine learning often take the form of tables with categorical entries. We introduce a family of lossless compression algorithms for such data that proceed in four steps: (i) Estimate latent variables associated to rows and columns; (ii) Partition the table in blocks according to the row/column latents; (iii) Apply a sequential (e.g. Lempel-Ziv) coder to each of the blocks; (iv) Append a compressed encoding of the latents. We evaluate it on several benchmark datasets, and study optimal compression in a probabilistic model for that tabular data, whereby latent values are independent and table entries are conditionally independent given the latent values. We prove that the model has a well defined entropy rate and satisfies an asymptotic equipartition property. We also prove that classical compression schemes such as Lempel-Ziv and finite-state encoders do not achieve this rate. On the other hand, the latent estimation strategy outlined above achieves the optimal rate.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) refers to approaches that improve reasoning performance by allocating extra computation during inference, without altering the model's parameters. While existing TTS methods operate in a discrete token space by generating more intermediate steps, recent studies in Coconut and SoftCoT have demonstrated that thinking in the continuous latent space can further enhance the reasoning performance. Such latent thoughts encode informative thinking without the information loss associated with autoregressive token generation, sparking increased interest in continuous-space reasoning. Unlike discrete decoding, where repeated sampling enables exploring diverse reasoning paths, latent representations in continuous space are fixed for a given input, which limits diverse exploration, as all decoded paths originate from the same latent thought. To overcome this limitation, we introduce SoftCoT++ to extend SoftCoT to the Test-Time Scaling paradigm by enabling diverse exploration of thinking paths. Specifically, we perturb latent thoughts via multiple specialized initial tokens and apply contrastive learning to promote diversity among soft thought representations. Experiments across five reasoning benchmarks and two distinct LLM architectures demonstrate that SoftCoT++ significantly boosts SoftCoT and also outperforms SoftCoT with self-consistency scaling. Moreover, it shows strong compatibility with conventional scaling techniques such as self-consistency. Source code is available at https://github.com/xuyige/SoftCoT.

Modelling compositionality has been a longstanding area of research in the field of vector space semantics. The categorical approach to compositionality maps grammar onto vector spaces in a principled way, but comes under fire for requiring the formation of very high-dimensional matrices and tensors, and therefore being computationally infeasible. In this paper I show how a linear simplification of recursive neural tensor network models can be mapped directly onto the categorical approach, giving a way of computing the required matrices and tensors. This mapping suggests a number of lines of research for both categorical compositional vector space models of meaning and for recursive neural network models of compositionality.

In recent years, artificial intelligence has significantly advanced medical image segmentation. Nonetheless, challenges remain, including efficient 3D medical image processing across diverse modalities and handling data variability. In this work, we introduce Hierarchical Soft Mixture-of-Experts (HoME), a two-level token-routing layer for efficient long-context modeling, specifically designed for 3D medical image segmentation. Built on the Mamba Selective State Space Model (SSM) backbone, HoME enhances sequential modeling through adaptive expert routing. In the first level, a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer partitions input sequences into local groups, routing tokens to specialized per-group experts for localized feature extraction. The second level aggregates these outputs through a global SMoE layer, enabling cross-group information fusion and global context refinement. This hierarchical design, combining local expert routing with global expert refinement, enhances generalizability and segmentation performance, surpassing state-of-the-art results across datasets from the three most widely used 3D medical imaging modalities and varying data qualities. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/gmum/MambaHoME.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

We characterize the statistical efficiency of knowledge transfer through n samples from a teacher to a probabilistic student classifier with input space mathcal S over labels mathcal A. We show that privileged information at three progressive levels accelerates the transfer. At the first level, only samples with hard labels are known, via which the maximum likelihood estimator attains the minimax rate {|{mathcal S||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. The second level has the teacher probabilities of sampled labels available in addition, which turns out to boost the convergence rate lower bound to {{|{mathcal S}||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. However, under this second data acquisition protocol, minimizing a naive adaptation of the cross-entropy loss results in an asymptotically biased student. We overcome this limitation and achieve the fundamental limit by using a novel empirical variant of the squared error logit loss. The third level further equips the student with the soft labels (complete logits) on {mathcal A} given every sampled input, thereby provably enables the student to enjoy a rate {|{mathcal S}|}/{n} free of |{mathcal A}|. We find any Kullback-Leibler divergence minimizer to be optimal in the last case. Numerical simulations distinguish the four learners and corroborate our theory.

In the realm of cross-modal retrieval, seamlessly integrating diverse modalities within multimedia remains a formidable challenge, especially given the complexities introduced by noisy correspondence learning (NCL). Such noise often stems from mismatched data pairs, which is a significant obstacle distinct from traditional noisy labels. This paper introduces Pseudo-Classification based Pseudo-Captioning (PC^2) framework to address this challenge. PC^2 offers a threefold strategy: firstly, it establishes an auxiliary "pseudo-classification" task that interprets captions as categorical labels, steering the model to learn image-text semantic similarity through a non-contrastive mechanism. Secondly, unlike prevailing margin-based techniques, capitalizing on PC^2's pseudo-classification capability, we generate pseudo-captions to provide more informative and tangible supervision for each mismatched pair. Thirdly, the oscillation of pseudo-classification is borrowed to assistant the correction of correspondence. In addition to technical contributions, we develop a realistic NCL dataset called Noise of Web (NoW), which could be a new powerful NCL benchmark where noise exists naturally. Empirical evaluations of PC^2 showcase marked improvements over existing state-of-the-art robust cross-modal retrieval techniques on both simulated and realistic datasets with various NCL settings. The contributed dataset and source code are released at https://github.com/alipay/PC2-NoiseofWeb.

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier feature representations. In this paper, we develop a novel variational non-local network-based outlier rejection framework for robust alignment. By reformulating the non-local feature learning with variational Bayesian inference, the Bayesian-driven long-range dependencies can be modeled to aggregate discriminative geometric context information for inlier/outlier distinction. Specifically, to achieve such Bayesian-driven contextual dependencies, each query/key/value component in our non-local network predicts a prior feature distribution and a posterior one. Embedded with the inlier/outlier label, the posterior feature distribution is label-dependent and discriminative. Thus, pushing the prior to be close to the discriminative posterior in the training step enables the features sampled from this prior at test time to model high-quality long-range dependencies. Notably, to achieve effective posterior feature guidance, a specific probabilistic graphical model is designed over our non-local model, which lets us derive a variational low bound as our optimization objective for model training. Finally, we propose a voting-based inlier searching strategy to cluster the high-quality hypothetical inliers for transformation estimation. Extensive experiments on 3DMatch, 3DLoMatch, and KITTI datasets verify the effectiveness of our method.

Linear Mode Connectivity (LMC) refers to the phenomenon that performance remains consistent for linearly interpolated models in the parameter space. For independently optimized model pairs from different random initializations, achieving LMC is considered crucial for validating the stable success of the non-convex optimization in modern machine learning models and for facilitating practical parameter-based operations such as model merging. While LMC has been achieved for neural networks by considering the permutation invariance of neurons in each hidden layer, its attainment for other models remains an open question. In this paper, we first achieve LMC for soft tree ensembles, which are tree-based differentiable models extensively used in practice. We show the necessity of incorporating two invariances: subtree flip invariance and splitting order invariance, which do not exist in neural networks but are inherent to tree architectures, in addition to permutation invariance of trees. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is even possible to exclude such additional invariances while keeping LMC by designing decision list-based tree architectures, where such invariances do not exist by definition. Our findings indicate the significance of accounting for architecture-specific invariances in achieving LMC.

We propose Equiangular Basis Vectors (EBVs) for classification tasks. In deep neural networks, models usually end with a k-way fully connected layer with softmax to handle different classification tasks. The learning objective of these methods can be summarized as mapping the learned feature representations to the samples' label space. While in metric learning approaches, the main objective is to learn a transformation function that maps training data points from the original space to a new space where similar points are closer while dissimilar points become farther apart. Different from previous methods, our EBVs generate normalized vector embeddings as "predefined classifiers" which are required to not only be with the equal status between each other, but also be as orthogonal as possible. By minimizing the spherical distance of the embedding of an input between its categorical EBV in training, the predictions can be obtained by identifying the categorical EBV with the smallest distance during inference. Various experiments on the ImageNet-1K dataset and other downstream tasks demonstrate that our method outperforms the general fully connected classifier while it does not introduce huge additional computation compared with classical metric learning methods. Our EBVs won the first place in the 2022 DIGIX Global AI Challenge, and our code is open-source and available at https://github.com/NJUST-VIPGroup/Equiangular-Basis-Vectors.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Semantic image synthesis (SIS) shows good promises for sensor simulation. However, current best practices in this field, based on GANs, have not yet reached the desired level of quality. As latent diffusion models make significant strides in image generation, we are prompted to evaluate ControlNet, a notable method for its dense control capabilities. Our investigation uncovered two primary issues with its results: the presence of weird sub-structures within large semantic areas and the misalignment of content with the semantic mask. Through empirical study, we pinpointed the cause of these problems as a mismatch between the noised training data distribution and the standard normal prior applied at the inference stage. To address this challenge, we developed specific noise priors for SIS, encompassing spatial, categorical, and a novel spatial-categorical joint prior for inference. This approach, which we have named SCP-Diff, has set new state-of-the-art results in SIS on Cityscapes, ADE20K and COCO-Stuff, yielding a FID as low as 10.53 on Cityscapes. The code and models can be accessed via the project page.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

While semi-supervised learning (SSL) has yielded promising results, the more realistic SSL scenario remains to be explored, in which the unlabeled data exhibits extremely high recognition difficulty, e.g., fine-grained visual classification in the context of SSL (SS-FGVC). The increased recognition difficulty on fine-grained unlabeled data spells disaster for pseudo-labeling accuracy, resulting in poor performance of the SSL model. To tackle this challenge, we propose Soft Label Selection with Confidence-Aware Clustering based on Class Transition Tracking (SoC) by reconstructing the pseudo-label selection process by jointly optimizing Expansion Objective and Shrinkage Objective, which is based on a soft label manner. Respectively, the former objective encourages soft labels to absorb more candidate classes to ensure the attendance of ground-truth class, while the latter encourages soft labels to reject more noisy classes, which is theoretically proved to be equivalent to entropy minimization. In comparisons with various state-of-the-art methods, our approach demonstrates its superior performance in SS-FGVC. Checkpoints and source code are available at https://github.com/NJUyued/SoC4SS-FGVC.

Constantly discovering novel concepts is crucial in evolving environments. This paper explores the underexplored task of Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD), which aims to incrementally discover new classes from unlabeled data while maintaining the ability to recognize previously learned classes. Although several settings are proposed to study the C-GCD task, they have limitations that do not reflect real-world scenarios. We thus study a more practical C-GCD setting, which includes more new classes to be discovered over a longer period, without storing samples of past classes. In C-GCD, the model is initially trained on labeled data of known classes, followed by multiple incremental stages where the model is fed with unlabeled data containing both old and new classes. The core challenge involves two conflicting objectives: discover new classes and prevent forgetting old ones. We delve into the conflicts and identify that models are susceptible to prediction bias and hardness bias. To address these issues, we introduce a debiased learning framework, namely Happy, characterized by Hardness-aware prototype sampling and soft entropy regularization. For the prediction bias, we first introduce clustering-guided initialization to provide robust features. In addition, we propose soft entropy regularization to assign appropriate probabilities to new classes, which can significantly enhance the clustering performance of new classes. For the harness bias, we present the hardness-aware prototype sampling, which can effectively reduce the forgetting issue for previously seen classes, especially for difficult classes. Experimental results demonstrate our method proficiently manages the conflicts of C-GCD and achieves remarkable performance across various datasets, e.g., 7.5% overall gains on ImageNet-100. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/Happy-CGCD.

Because diffusion models have shown impressive performances in a number of tasks, such as image synthesis, there is a trend in recent works to prove (with certain assumptions) that these models have strong approximation capabilities. In this paper, we show that current diffusion models actually have an expressive bottleneck in backward denoising and some assumption made by existing theoretical guarantees is too strong. Based on this finding, we prove that diffusion models have unbounded errors in both local and global denoising. In light of our theoretical studies, we introduce soft mixture denoising (SMD), an expressive and efficient model for backward denoising. SMD not only permits diffusion models to well approximate any Gaussian mixture distributions in theory, but also is simple and efficient for implementation. Our experiments on multiple image datasets show that SMD significantly improves different types of diffusion models (e.g., DDPM), espeically in the situation of few backward iterations.

We give a conceptual treatment of the notion of joints, marginals, and independence in the setting of categorical probability. This is achieved by endowing the usual probability monads (like the Giry monad) with a monoidal and an opmonoidal structure, mutually compatible (i.e. a bimonoidal structure). If the underlying monoidal category is cartesian monoidal, a bimonoidal structure is given uniquely by a commutative strength. However, if the underlying monoidal category is not cartesian monoidal, a strength is not enough to guarantee all the desired properties of joints and marginals. A bimonoidal structure is then the correct requirement for the more general case. We explain the theory and the operational interpretation, with the help of the graphical calculus for monoidal categories. We give a definition of stochastic independence based on the bimonoidal structure, compatible with the intuition and with other approaches in the literature for cartesian monoidal categories. We then show as an example that the Kantorovich monad on the category of complete metric spaces is a bimonoidal monad for a non-cartesian monoidal structure.

It is well known that ensemble methods often provide enhanced performance in reinforcement learning. In this paper, we explore this concept further by using group-aided training within the distributional reinforcement learning paradigm. Specifically, we propose an extension to categorical reinforcement learning, where distributional learning targets are implicitly based on the total information gathered by an ensemble. We empirically show that this may lead to much more robust initial learning, a stronger individual performance level, and good efficiency on a per-sample basis.

Real-world single image denoising is crucial and practical in computer vision. Bayesian inversions combined with score priors now have proven effective for single image denoising but are limited to white Gaussian noise. Moreover, applying existing score-based methods for real-world denoising requires not only the explicit train of score priors on the target domain but also the careful design of sampling procedures for posterior inference, which is complicated and impractical. To address these limitations, we propose a score priors-guided deep variational inference, namely ScoreDVI, for practical real-world denoising. By considering the deep variational image posterior with a Gaussian form, score priors are extracted based on easily accessible minimum MSE Non-i.i.d Gaussian denoisers and variational samples, which in turn facilitate optimizing the variational image posterior. Such a procedure adaptively applies cheap score priors to denoising. Additionally, we exploit a Non-i.i.d Gaussian mixture model and variational noise posterior to model the real-world noise. This scheme also enables the pixel-wise fusion of multiple image priors and variational image posteriors. Besides, we develop a noise-aware prior assignment strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of image priors in the optimization. Our method outperforms other single image-based real-world denoising methods and achieves comparable performance to dataset-based unsupervised methods.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

The capability to generate responses with diversity and faithfulness using factual knowledge is paramount for creating a human-like, trustworthy dialogue system. Common strategies either adopt a two-step paradigm, which optimizes knowledge selection and response generation separately, and may overlook the inherent correlation between these two tasks, or leverage conditional variational method to jointly optimize knowledge selection and response generation by employing an inference network. In this paper, we present an end-to-end learning framework, termed Sequential Posterior Inference (SPI), capable of selecting knowledge and generating dialogues by approximately sampling from the posterior distribution. Unlike other methods, SPI does not require the inference network or assume a simple geometry of the posterior distribution. This straightforward and intuitive inference procedure of SPI directly queries the response generation model, allowing for accurate knowledge selection and generation of faithful responses. In addition to modeling contributions, our experimental results on two common dialogue datasets (Wizard of Wikipedia and Holl-E) demonstrate that SPI outperforms previous strong baselines according to both automatic and human evaluation metrics.

Identifying subordinate-level categories from images is a longstanding task in computer vision and is referred to as fine-grained visual recognition (FGVR). It has tremendous significance in real-world applications since an average layperson does not excel at differentiating species of birds or mushrooms due to subtle differences among the species. A major bottleneck in developing FGVR systems is caused by the need of high-quality paired expert annotations. To circumvent the need of expert knowledge we propose Fine-grained Semantic Category Reasoning (FineR) that internally leverages the world knowledge of large language models (LLMs) as a proxy in order to reason about fine-grained category names. In detail, to bridge the modality gap between images and LLM, we extract part-level visual attributes from images as text and feed that information to a LLM. Based on the visual attributes and its internal world knowledge the LLM reasons about the subordinate-level category names. Our training-free FineR outperforms several state-of-the-art FGVR and language and vision assistant models and shows promise in working in the wild and in new domains where gathering expert annotation is arduous.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Convolutions (Convs) and multi-head self-attentions (MHSAs) are typically considered alternatives to each other for building vision backbones. Although some works try to integrate both, they apply the two operators simultaneously at the finest pixel granularity. With Convs responsible for per-pixel feature extraction already, the question is whether we still need to include the heavy MHSAs at such a fine-grained level. In fact, this is the root cause of the scalability issue w.r.t. the input resolution for vision transformers. To address this important problem, we propose in this work to use MSHAs and Convs in parallel at different granularity levels instead. Specifically, in each layer, we use two different ways to represent an image: a fine-grained regular grid and a coarse-grained set of semantic slots. We apply different operations to these two representations: Convs to the grid for local features, and MHSAs to the slots for global features. A pair of fully differentiable soft clustering and dispatching modules is introduced to bridge the grid and set representations, thus enabling local-global fusion. Through extensive experiments on various vision tasks, we empirically verify the potential of the proposed integration scheme, named GLMix: by offloading the burden of fine-grained features to light-weight Convs, it is sufficient to use MHSAs in a few (e.g., 64) semantic slots to match the performance of recent state-of-the-art backbones, while being more efficient. Our visualization results also demonstrate that the soft clustering module produces a meaningful semantic grouping effect with only IN1k classification supervision, which may induce better interpretability and inspire new weakly-supervised semantic segmentation approaches. Code will be available at https://github.com/rayleizhu/GLMix.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

Traditional 2D pose estimation models are limited by their category-specific design, making them suitable only for predefined object categories. This restriction becomes particularly challenging when dealing with novel objects due to the lack of relevant training data. To address this limitation, category-agnostic pose estimation (CAPE) was introduced. CAPE aims to enable keypoint localization for arbitrary object categories using a single model, requiring minimal support images with annotated keypoints. This approach not only enables object pose generation based on arbitrary keypoint definitions but also significantly reduces the associated costs, paving the way for versatile and adaptable pose estimation applications. We present a novel approach to CAPE that leverages the inherent geometrical relations between keypoints through a newly designed Graph Transformer Decoder. By capturing and incorporating this crucial structural information, our method enhances the accuracy of keypoint localization, marking a significant departure from conventional CAPE techniques that treat keypoints as isolated entities. We validate our approach on the MP-100 benchmark, a comprehensive dataset comprising over 20,000 images spanning more than 100 categories. Our method outperforms the prior state-of-the-art by substantial margins, achieving remarkable improvements of 2.16% and 1.82% under 1-shot and 5-shot settings, respectively. Furthermore, our method's end-to-end training demonstrates both scalability and efficiency compared to previous CAPE approaches.

Priors are essential for reconstructing images from noisy and/or incomplete measurements. The choice of the prior determines both the quality and uncertainty of recovered images. We propose turning score-based diffusion models into principled image priors ("score-based priors") for analyzing a posterior of images given measurements. Previously, probabilistic priors were limited to handcrafted regularizers and simple distributions. In this work, we empirically validate the theoretically-proven probability function of a score-based diffusion model. We show how to sample from resulting posteriors by using this probability function for variational inference. Our results, including experiments on denoising, deblurring, and interferometric imaging, suggest that score-based priors enable principled inference with a sophisticated, data-driven image prior.

The learnable, linear neural network layers between tensor power spaces of R^{n} that are equivariant to the orthogonal group, O(n), the special orthogonal group, SO(n), and the symplectic group, Sp(n), were characterised in arXiv:2212.08630. We present an algorithm for multiplying a vector by any weight matrix for each of these groups, using category theoretic constructions to implement the procedure. We achieve a significant reduction in computational cost compared with a naive implementation by making use of Kronecker product matrices to perform the multiplication. We show that our approach extends to the symmetric group, S_n, recovering the algorithm of arXiv:2303.06208 in the process.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

Denoisers play a central role in many applications, from noise suppression in low-grade imaging sensors, to empowering score-based generative models. The latter category of methods makes use of Tweedie's formula, which links the posterior mean in Gaussian denoising (\ie the minimum MSE denoiser) with the score of the data distribution. Here, we derive a fundamental relation between the higher-order central moments of the posterior distribution, and the higher-order derivatives of the posterior mean. We harness this result for uncertainty quantification of pre-trained denoisers. Particularly, we show how to efficiently compute the principal components of the posterior distribution for any desired region of an image, as well as to approximate the full marginal distribution along those (or any other) one-dimensional directions. Our method is fast and memory-efficient, as it does not explicitly compute or store the high-order moment tensors and it requires no training or fine tuning of the denoiser. Code and examples are available on the project webpage in https://hilamanor.github.io/GaussianDenoisingPosterior/ .

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.