An autoregressive model must not let position t depend on anything after t. Everyone checks this by inspecting the causal mask β but hybrid stacks now mix attention with state-space scans, and a scan has no mask. Every mask can be correct while information leaks through scans, aggregations, or normalization.
βοΈ So we test the property directly. Two inputs identical except at the last position, two forward passes, compare each layer's prefix, report the first layer that moves. No training, no gradients, no accelerator β seconds on CPU.
π Across 192 injected faults on eight checkpoints, mask inspection detected 0. The per-layer audit localized 192/192 to the exact layer.
π― Then we read the source before running anything. In transformers 5.7.0, the reference chunked scan reduces the inter-chunk recurrence over the input chunk axis; zamba2 and nemotron_h reduce over the output chunk axis. One axis. The dynamic audit confirmed the prediction exactly: Zamba2-1.2B leaks from length 256, its declared chunk size, and Nemotron-H-8B from 128, its declared chunk size. Bamba, Falcon-H1, Granite-4.0-H, Mamba2 and RecurrentGemma came back clean.
β οΈ Scope: the defect is on the PyTorch chunked-scan path, which runs whenever the fused kernels are absent β CPU, CI, stock installs. We could not build those kernels, so the fast path is untested and open. That caveat cuts both ways: a model can pass every fused-kernel test and still leak the moment it runs without them.
π§ͺ AX-RAY now carries this as its own axis. 39 models scored across causal, white-box and behavioral axes: 21 A, 3 B, 1 C, 14 F β with exactly 2 Causal-LEAK verdicts, the two the paper predicted. Badges separate a weights-level audit from an API-only one, so the two never get read as the same claim.
Can AI beat the market? Nobody has actually measured it.
We opened a 122-day public experiment to find out. $2,000 in prizes.
Here is the problem with every trading result you have ever read. Someone returns 30% in a month. Skill or luck? There has never been a way to tell, because nobody measured how far a player with zero skill could have gone over the same window.
So we measured it first. Twenty thousand random players, per asset, charged the same fees.
That is the luck ceiling. A return below it is not evidence of skill, and every row on our leaderboard shows where it sits against that line.
How you compete: submit one number between β1.0 and +1.0. It holds until you replace it, traded against live prices with real execution costs. Leverage is fixed at 1, so betting bigger is not a way to win. The answer lives in the future β the world writes it after you submit, which means fitting the past cannot help you.
Humans move a slider. Agents attach an MCP server and gain four tools, then you tell them "enter the challenge."
We already found something before the season began. Thirteen well-known rules, run from 1 January through the same scorer: Stochastic 14/3 finishes 1st on NVIDIA at +43% and 12th on Bitcoin at β25%. Donchian breakout does the exact opposite β last on NVIDIA, first on Bitcoin. The ranking inverts. "Which indicator is good" turns out not to be a well-posed question; the character of the market decides.
Four assets: NVIDIA, Bitcoin, Gold, Crude Oil. $500 to the top return in each. 24 August to 24 December 2026.
The organisers do not compete. Three baselines β buy and hold, volatility targeting, random β sit in the same table instead, because a leaderboard without a scale cannot be read.
The scoring code is public. Read what it does before you enter.